366
FXUS61 KCAR 100121
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
921 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN
TRAVEL IMPACTS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
2) TWO ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING SNOW OR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO ALL OR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, THE
FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN THE SECOND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO DISRUPT TRAVEL. THE SECOND SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEPENDING ON ITS
TRACK.
3) TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
RESULTING IN SNOW MELTING, AND ICE ROTTING ON RIVERS AND LAKES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD RESULT IN
TRAVEL IMPACTS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS ON HOW COLD THE SURFACE
TEMPS WILL GET IN ORDER TO HOLD ON TO THE RESPECTIVE PRECIP
TYPES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BELOW ARE THE DETAILS ON WHAT TO
EXPECT:
SNOW: PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING IN THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
MAINLY SNOW. DUE TO THE INCREASING QPF AND A COOLER SOLUTION,
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL. THE HIGH IMPACTS ARE MAINLY
DUE TO SNOW AMOUNTS AND THE HEAVY, WET SNOW CONSISTENCY.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET: THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OVERRUN
THE COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS, CAUSING MIXED PRECIP TO DEVELOP. THE
QUESTION WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE WARM AIRMASS IN THE MID
LEVELS. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD SEE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FIRST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY, THE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND SOUTH, REACHING
INTO THE BANGOR REGION AND CENTRAL AROOSTOOK. BY THE AFTERNOON,
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH AND
RAIN IN THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THE S FLOW SHOULD INCREASE, ERODING THE CAD AND SWITCHING
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP TO RAIN. DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIP, ICE AND SLEET AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER, CREATING
DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
RAIN: THOUGH COASTAL DOWNEAST IS EXPECTED TO SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MIXED PRECIP, THE AREA SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN. DUE TO THE
WARMER TEMPS AND AND HIGHER PWATS, RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE HIGH FOR THE AREA IN THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. THE FROZEN
GROUND WILL CAUSE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO RUN OFF INTO
RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ROTTING ICE AND
SNOW COULD CAUSE ICE TO MOVE ON THE RIVERS.
WIND: THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUSTY
WIND, ICE COVERED SURFACES, AND HEAVY WET SNOW COULD CAUSE
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TWO ADDITIONAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO
BRING SNOW OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO ALL OR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN THE
SECOND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO DISRUPT TRAVEL. THE SECOND SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEPENDING ON ITS
TRACK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SET UP THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TWO ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS LIKELY
TO IMPACT TRAVEL. THE FIRST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS
CURRENTLY FAVORED (ROUGHLY 60 PERCENT OF MEMBERS) TO TRACK ALONG
THE COAST AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST AREAS. A LARGE MINORITY OF GUIDANCE TRACKS THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A LARGE DRY SLOT
MOVING OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO LESS PRECIPITATION. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BE WARMER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
A SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, LEADING TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN THE EARLY WEEKEND
SYSTEM, BUT ITS TRACK VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH WILL DETERMINE
IMPACTS. IF A STRONGER LOW TRACKS WEST OF THE AREA, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY THE SLIGHTLY FAVORED SOLUTION, A STRONG SOUTH WIND
COULD LEAD TO ISSUES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY START FROZEN REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK, ESPECIALLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST, SO AT LEAST SOME TRAVEL IMPACT IS LOOKING
LIKELY FROM THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH
TUESDAY RESULTING IN SNOW MELTING, AND ICE ROTTING ON RIVERS AND
LAKES.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS, THOUGH WILL DROP TO BELOW 30 OVER THE NORTH
WOODS. THIS WILL STOP THE SNOWMELT OVERNIGHT ACRS THE NORTHWEST WITH
SNOWMELT SLOWING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE THAWING DEGREE HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY, ICE IS LIKELY TO ROT
OVER NORTHERN RIVERS WITH SOME MOVEMENT POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
RIVERS. HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE 60S OVER
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE BANGOR REGION, THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW MAY
KEEP THE COAST IN THE 50S. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 1030MB HIGH
BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA MAY KEEP NORTHERN AROOSTOOK DOWN IN THE
40S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TONIGHT...LOCAL MVFR DOWNEAST LATE TONIGHT WITH ANY PATCHY FOG.
OTHERWISE, VFR ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING, THEN WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS LATE. OTHERWISE, VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BECOMING MVFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE.
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN SITES LATE IN LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION. NNE 5-15KTS.
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
RAIN SOUTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH. E WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR. W WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
FRIDAY...VFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. N WINDS 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS EVENING OVER
OUTER WATERS. WINDS GUST ABOVE 25KTS AT TIMES TONIGHT OVER ALL
WATERS. CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE OUTER WATERS,
AND POSSIBLY OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS AS WELL. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY.
CLIMATE
A PRELIMINARY RECORD HIGH OF 50 DEGREES WAS SET IN CARIBOU
TODAY. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW.
TUESDAY, MARCH 10
CARIBOU: FORECAST 44 F; RECORD 55 F SET IN 1977
HOULTON: FORECAST 53 F; RECORD 58 F SET IN 1977
MILLINOCKET: FORECAST 58 F; RECORD 54 F SET IN 2016
BANGOR: FORECAST 61 F; RECORD 62 F SET IN 1977
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...21/ARL
AVIATION...21/ARL/CN
MARINE...21/ARL
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