594
FXUS61 KCAR 101043
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
643 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED AND SLEET AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTH AS MORE PRECIPITATION IS NOW FORECAST
TO FALL AS SLEET.
-(640 AM UPDATE) CANCELLED THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
REPLACED IT WITH A NEW ONE ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO UPDATED THE
AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF
SLEET, ALONG WITH SOME SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
WILL RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS AND DIFFICULT SNOW REMOVAL.
2) A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL WITH SLUSHY AND SLIPPERY
ROADS SATURDAY MORNING.
3) A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY BRING
SNOW NORTH AND A MIX DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORM.
THIS COULD BRING SOME MESSY TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY,
AND THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF
SLEET, ALONG WITH SOME SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND
WILL RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS AND DIFFICULT SNOW REMOVAL.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF MAINE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT MIXED PRECIPITATION AS
WARM, MOIST AIR AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OVER
THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. GULF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH WILL BUILD ACROSS MAINE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE HAS A DOUBLE BARRELED SURFACE LOW WITH
ONE CENTER PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE ARE AND ONE OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE NEAR THE GROUND FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP REFREEZING LAYER FOR
PREDOMINANTLY SLEET WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER
PRECIPITATION STARTS AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE FAR
NORTH. SNOW RATIOS WERE CAPPED AROUND 10 TO 12 TO 1 DUE TO THE
EXPECTATION OF RIMING FROM A WARM NOSE ALOFT, AND GENERAL POOR
CONDITIONS FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR MAY ERODE
LATE IN THE EVENT, DECREASING THE REFREEZING AREA IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO SOME FREEZING RAIN. THIS
ZONE APPEARS TO MOST LIKELY BE TRANSIENT RATHER THAN STATIC,
WHICH SHOULD REDUCE ICE ACCRETION AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
FARTHER SOUTH, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE
IT, PARTICULARLY AFTER A VERY WARM DAY TODAY. HISTORICALLY
MODELS OVERDO COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THESE SCENARIOS, AND THE NBM
APPEARED TO BE BIAS CORRECTING TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ON TOP OF
THIS, SO TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE WITH NO
BIAS CORRECTION WERE PREFERRED, WHICH INCREASED LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE BANGOR AREA AND TOWARDS THE COAST, THUS CAUSING
THE FORECAST TO BE ALL RAIN COMPARED TO FREEZING RAIN ON THE
NBM. CLOSE ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE PAID TO THE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND PROGRESS OF THE FRONT TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE
COLD FRONT IS BEHIND GUIDANCE PROJECTIONS, WHICH COULD SHIFT
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION EVEN FARTHER TO
THE NORTH.
THERE IS ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
SLIGHTLY NW, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME QPF TO FALL AS RAIN AT THE
END OF THE EVENT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MEETING LOCALLY
DEFINED MIXED PRECIPITATION WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA FOR
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK ZONES, WHICH IS EITHER 1 INCH OF QPF FALLING
AS ANY COMBINATION OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN, OR 1 INCH
OF SLEET. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE YET FOR
ZONES ON THE SOUTH END OF THE WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN QPF
AND THE TRANSITION TIMING TO RAIN. FOR SIMPLICITY, THE ENTIRE
WATCH WAS KEPT FOR NOW AND WILL BE REEVALUATED TODAY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST ONE TIER
OF ZONES SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT AMOUNTS
AND HEADLINES, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN POOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SLEET ARE EXPECTED WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES, LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES OF
ALL SLEET WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST SLEET AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THIS AMOUNT OF SLEET CAN BE VERY DIFFICULT
AND STRENUOUS TO REMOVE. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING ANY FREEZING RAIN TO MELT OFF
ELEVATED SURFACES AS WEST WINDS INCREASE. WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL AS SLEET AND ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES NOW EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE EVENT, THE POWER
OUTAGE RISK HAS DECREASED, BUT A FEW OUTAGES STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL WITH
SLUSHY AND SLIPPERY ROADS SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE STORM WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND APPROACH FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF CARRYING THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AND THE
GFS BRINGING THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL PART OF AREA. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS AGREE THAT COLD AIR WILL BE WELL ENOUGH ENTRENCHED FOR SNOW
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE COAST. THE SNOW INLAND AND MIX OR
RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO END THE PRECIP WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO OUR NORTH
ALLOWING FOR A DRY INTRUSION TO QUICKLY SWEEP IN AND END THE
PRECIPITATION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS, WITH A MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE LOW, CARRIES A CONTINUATION OF SNOW INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH THEN TAPERS OFF LATE IN THE DAY.
IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INVOLVE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MESSY
TRAVEL MAY CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. ROAD
SURFACES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST BECOME
WET BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND
MAY BRING SNOW NORTH AND A MIX DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANGING TO
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STORM. THIS COULD BRING SOME MESSY TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
MONDAY, AND THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG, DEEP AND COLD TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND SUPPORTING A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. THE GFS HAS AN
OVERRUNNING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY
IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT BUT NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IF THE
ECMWF IS RIGHT. AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO APPROACH ON MONDAY, A
TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LARGE SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE
EAST WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JUST MAY IMPACT AT LEAST THE
DOWNEAST REGION. WARM AIR SURGING NORTH WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO
ALL RAIN ON MONDAY. AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTH INTO EASTERN CANADA, A
COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT INCREASES MIXING
AND PULLS DOWN SOME STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT. MODERATELY COOLER AIR
WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FORM THIS STORM INCLUDE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
ROADS LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY
NORTH, AND STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY CAUSING SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH 10Z TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TODAY, INCREASING OUT OF
THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
MVFR CEILINGS BUILD FIRST AT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK/10Z, THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BUILD IN SHORTLY AFTER. MIXED PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS NORTH OF BGR AROUND OR JUST AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET/ICE PELLETS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN MAINE
TERMINALS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. EAST WINDS 5
TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...IFR, IMPROVING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR DOWNEAST LATE. SW
TO W WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SW WIND SHEAR AT 2K FT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY
MVFR OVER THE FAR NORTH. W WIND AROUND 10 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR. W TO SW WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR. SE WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY...IFR NORTH AND MVFR SOUTH. N WIND AROUND 10 KT ACROSS THE
NORTH AND W WIND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTH.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS AGAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IS
NOT SUFFICIENT FOR A GALE HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WAVE HEIGHTS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS MAY APPROACH 10 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
WAVE PERIOD AROUND 5 TO 8 SECONDS IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, LEADING TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
A GALE MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 35 KT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A GALE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR W WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. A STRONG GALE AND POSSIBLY STORM WILL BE
NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR STRONG S WINDS GUSTING UP TO
45-50 KT. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 10 FT THURSDAY, SUBSIDING TO
AROUND 5 FT FRIDAY, AND BUILDING BACK TO TO 10 FT FRIDAY, DOWN
TO 8 FT SATURDAY AND 3 TO 4 FT SUNDAY THEN BACK UP TO 12 FT
MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT CARIBOU, MILLINOCKET, AND
HOULTON ON MONDAY. BANGOR TIED THEIR RECORD. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
TUESDAY, MARCH 10
CARIBOU: FORECAST 46 F; RECORD 55 F SET IN 1977
HOULTON: FORECAST 59 F; RECORD 58 F SET IN 1977
MILLINOCKET: FORECAST 59 F; RECORD 54 F SET IN 2016
BANGOR: FORECAST 67 F; RECORD 62 F SET IN 1977
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...MB/MWS
AVIATION...MB/MWS
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