636
FXUS61 KCAR 110129
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
929 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BRINGING ALL BUT THE KITCHEN SINK
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TREACHEROUS TRAVEL EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE DOWNEAST AREA.
2) A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL WITH SLUSHY AND SLIPPERY
ROADS SATURDAY MORNING.
3) A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY BRING SNOW
NORTH AND A MIX DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORM. THIS
COULD BRING SOME MESSY TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BRINGING ALL BUT THE
KITCHEN SINK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL EXPECTED NORTH OF THE DOWNEAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LIGHT ECHOES SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL RADARS ASSOCIATED WITH H8
FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH. WEAK LOPRES HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
AREAS LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING UP INTO THE 70S
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. IN FACT, THE 70 DEGREE READING AT
BANGOR TODAY IS THE EARLIEST IT HAS BEEN REACHED SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN, DATING BACK TO 1925.
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEING PUSHED OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING. 1035MB HIPRES WILL
BUILD THRU CANADA OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SUPPLYING A
STEADY SUPPLY OF COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. HOW COLD SURFACE TEMPS CAN FALL IN THE BANGOR REGION AND
DOWNEAST TONIGHT CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN QUESTION, BUT IT IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE.
SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS BACK TOWARD STRONGER SFC LOW SITTING BACK OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE KANSAS CITY AREA. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH RFQ OF UPR LEVEL JET STREAK. HAVE INCLUDED VERY LIGHT POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG H8 FRONT HOWEVER AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK FOR A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AROUND SUNRISE ACRS WRN AREAS, THOUGH
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH MAY DELAY THE START TIME BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A COLD LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP
TOWARD 5-6KFT WITH A WARM NOSE RIGHT AROUND 750MB. WINDS WILL BE
VEERING THRU THE COLUMN TOWARD THE SOUTH WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECIP LOOKS TO BEGIN AS SNOW OVER THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX OVER CENTRAL AREAS AND RAIN IN DOWNEAST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP FROM BANGOR OVER
TOWARDS CALAIS BUT HOW LONG WINTRY MIX CONTINUES ACRS THESE AREAS
WILL DETERMINE ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND/OR ACCRETION OF ICE, THUS
HAVE LEFT THIS AREA OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH WITH
BELOW FREEZING LAYER REMAINING DEEP. EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM
TOWARD FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A FEW DEGREES COLDER JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE, ENOUGH TO REFREEZE ANY MELTED SNOWFLAKES INTO ICE
PELLETS.
AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES OVER THE FAR NORTH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY IN THE EVENING THE SAME SCENARIO WILL BE PLAYING OUT. OVERALL
THIS WINTER STORM LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SLEET PRODUCER THAN FREEZING
RAIN JUST BASED ON ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.
OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY
AT ONSET WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET. AS THE
DAY WEARS ON SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET WITH A TOTAL OF 1-2 INCHES ON TOP
OF THE HEAVY AND WET SNOW, LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES OF SLEET POSSIBLE.
AND TO TOP IT OFF WILL BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE MOVING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS TO SAY
IS THAT NOT ONLY WILL TRAVEL BE VERY TREACHEROUS BUT CLEAN UP WILL
ALSO BE TOUGH. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN AFTER THE STORM. PACE
YOURSELF AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND GUST UPWARDS OF 25 MPH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH HEAVY WET SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FALLING THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TREE DAMAGE ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL WITH SLUSHY AND
SLIPPERY ROADS SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FRIDAY WITH SNOW OVERSPREADING
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS
AS IF THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, A RAIN SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST.
THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY BRING SNOW
NORTH AND A MIX DOWNEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORM. THIS
COULD BRING SOME MESSY TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARMER AIR SURGING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW, WITH ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET GOING OVER
TO ALL RAIN MONDAY. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL WOULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTH,
AS WELL AS CONTINUED ICE ROT ON RIVERS AND LAKES.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING WITH DEVELOPING SNOW. IFR/LIFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR/MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH A WINTRY MIX OR
RAIN. IFR/LIFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN. NORTHEAST/EAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS, BECOMING ALL RAIN AT HUL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
ALL RAIN BGR AND BHB. SE 5-10KTS, GUSTING TO 20KTS.
THURSDAY..MVFR/IFR EARLY, THEN VFR BY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
SNOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TONIGHT,
BEFORE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS CLIMBING
TO BETWEEN 7 TO 10 FT THURSDAY MORNING.
SCA OR POSSIBLE MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE THE POSSIBLE FRIDAY, WITH GALES
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR MEZ003>006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...21/TWD
AVIATION...21/TWD/CN
MARINE...21/TWD
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