486
FXUS61 KCAR 120011
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
811 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS IN RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTER STORM BRINGING HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN MAINE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMMUTE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
2) A FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. THIS COULD CAUSE MESSY AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING TRAVEL.
3) SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING, CHANGING TO RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG
SOUTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MESSY TRAVEL, MAINLY NORTH, MONDAY MORNING, AND SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINTER STORM BRINGING HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN MAINE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMMUTE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE
EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
730PM UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE IN, BUT LIKELY OF
LIMITED DURATION THIS EVENING. POPS ARE BLEND OF CONSSHORT, HRRR
AND NBM 1 HOURLY POPS. FARTHER NORTH WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN
VALID, WITH SNOW HANGING IN MAYBE A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, OVERALL THINGS APPEAR ON TRACK. WILL ISSUE
ANOTHER UPDATE PRIOR TO 11PM TO EXPIRE AND/OR CANCEL AS
APPLICABLE EXISTING ADVISORIES AND MAKE SURE END TIME OF
SOUTHERN TIER OF WARNING AT 2AM IS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG INVERTED TROUGH AND HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER INTO THE NORTH WOODS THRU 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS REMAIN BLO FREEZING NORTH OF BANGOR, WITH 20S OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK IN COLD AIR DAMMING AREAS
WITH ALL RAIN IN THE BANGOR REGION AND THROUGHOUT INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
SNOW IS STILL FALLING IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY WITH POINTS FURTHER
SOUTH SWITCHING OVER TO SLEET AS OF 18Z. WARM NOSE CONTINUES TO LIFT
THRU THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH ALL AREAS
OVER TO SLEET BY 00Z.
AS THE WARM LAYER ACCELERATES NORTH, SLEET WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES OF SLEET ACRS NRN AROOSTOOK WITH AROUND 1 INCH FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH, ICE ACCUMS LOOK TO RANGE FROM TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE NORTHERN WINTER STORM AT THIS POINT,
ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING
RAIN CONTINUES UNTIL CLOSER TO 15Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. THIS COULD CAUSE MESSY AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
PROVINCE ON SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR MAINLY ALL SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE BANGOR REGION. NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST AREAS,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS SNOW, AND THEN MIX WITH,
OR CHANGE TO RAIN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE ENDING SATURDAY
MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE LOW TRACK, WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT
ON PRECIPITATION TYPES. BUT AT THIS TIME, THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WITH REGARD TO SNOWFALL APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF THE BANGOR
REGION. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING, CHANGING TO RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY. THIS
COULD RESULT IN MESSY TRAVEL, MAINLY NORTH, MONDAY MORNING, AND
SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION DURING MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION DURING MONDAY. IN ADDITION, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS COULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR/MVFR TO GET STARTED EXCEPT LIFR AT KBHB BECOMING IFR/LIFR
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING, WITH VLIFR POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCE AT
KBHB WITH FOG/LOW CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND KBHB AND BY MID-LATE MORNING AT KBGR. CONDITIONS BECOME VFR
THROUGHOUT BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
WINDS OUT OF THE E-SE AROUND 10KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT. GUSTS SHOULD ABATE AT ALL TERMINALS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH WINDS PROBABLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS PICK UP
OUT OF THE W-WNW AT AROUND 10-15G20-25KT (NORTHERN TERMINALS)
AND NW AT LESS THAN 10 KT (SOUTHERN TERMINALS) THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN LLWS HAS DECREASED - WITH ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO REFLECT IN TAFS AT KBGR TONIGHT AND KFVE AND KHUL LATE
THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G15-25KT PROBABLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW NORTH AND SNOW/RAIN SOUTH.
SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN. GUSTY S TO SE WIND.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO GALES ON THE
OUTER WATERS LATE AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING BUT REMAINING ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ003>006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...21/TWD/PM
AVIATION...21/TWD/PM
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