882
FXUS61 KCAR 120611
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
211 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- EXTENDED WINTER STORM WARNING SEVERAL HOURS LONGER THIS
MORNING DUE TO TEMPERATURES STAYING BELOW FREEZING LONGER AND
A BURST OF FREEZING RAIN MOVING THROUGH AROUND 6-9AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ONE LAST BURST OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING IN
NORTHERN MAINE, THEN TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
NORTH TOWARD MIDDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. MUCH IMPROVED
TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARD MIDDAY.
2) LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A FEW INCHES LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MESSY AND SLIPPERY
TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING.
3) A LARGE STORM TRACKING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING SNOW INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MESSY CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
4) UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ONE LAST BURST OF FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING IN NORTHERN MAINE, THEN TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE NORTH TOWARD MIDDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING.
MUCH IMPROVED TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOWARD MIDDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS OF 2AM, PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN MAINE HAS SLACKENED TEMPORARILY
TO JUST INTERMITTENT LIGHT SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE, BUT NOT BEFORE AROUND 2 INCHES OF SLEET HAS OCCURRED
OVER MUCH OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY, LEADING TO EXTREMELY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A ZONE OF ROUGHLY ONE QUARTER INCH
OF ICE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH FROM ROUGHLY MILLINOCKET OVER TO
GREENVILLE, THANKFULLY NOT ENOUGH FOR POWER OUTAGES.
HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT DONE. WE ARE WATCHING ONE LAST BURST OF
PRECIPITATION PRESENTLY AROUND BURLINGTON AS OF 2AM, MOVING OUR
WAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. CAMS HAVE THIS
HITTING US AROUND THE 6AM-9AM TIMEFRAME, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
THINK THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN RATHER THAN SLEET BY THIS POINT WITH THE COOL AIR BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. ALSO, WITH TEMPS EASILY BELOW FREEZING
STILL AT 2AM AND NO REAL LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY PUSH, DON'T SEE
NORTHERN MAINE GETTING ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE BEFORE THIS
PRECIP GETS HERE. LOOKING FOR ABOUT TWO TENTHS INCH OF FREEZING
RAIN FROM THIS BURST, NOT ENOUGH FOR POWER OUTAGES BUT ENOUGH
FOR HORRIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE.
EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE NORTH TO CAPTURE THIS
LAST BURST OF FREEZING RAIN WHICH SHOULD COAT THE TWO OR SO
INCHES OF SLEET WITH A SOLID ICE LAYER AND MAKE IT EVEN MORE
DIFFICULT TO MOVE AROUND. TEMPERATURES DO AT LEAST GET ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH, SO
FOLKS MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS MOVING THIS CEMENT
AROUND, BUT THEN WE DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AND
EVERYTHING THAT REMAINS WILL FREEZE ROCK HARD.
SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET AND GREENVILLE, TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL COME AS RAIN.
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN COULD EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
DOWNEAST, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, AND POTENTIALLY CHANGE
TO A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
SOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A FEW INCHES LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MESSY AND
SLIPPERY TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND SPREAD SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO
AGREEMENT ON A LOW TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, THE NAM HAS A VERY DIFFERENT TRACK, TAKING THE LOW UP TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE FORECASTING SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW
TOO FAST TO PULL IN WARMER AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
PERHAPS THE COAST. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN TRACKING SOLUTION OF THE
NAM SWINGS A DRY INTRUSION UP INTO THE AREA LIMITING SNOW AMOUNTS
WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACKING SOLUTIONS HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW.
IF THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH, UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER, A NORTHERN TRACKING
LOW WOULD BRING A SHORTER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW WITH ONLY 2
TO 4 INCHES. EITHER WAY, MESSY TRAVEL IS LIKELY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A LARGE STORM TRACKING EAST FROM THE PLAINS WILL
BRING SNOW INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH EARLY MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MESSY CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG AND DEEPENING TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL
SUPPORT A LARGE AND INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY EVENING ALONG A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY EXTENDING WELL EAST OF
THE LOW. THIS LOW IS DESTINED TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST INTO
WESTERN QUEBEC AND, AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL PULL WARMER AIR NORTH
OVER OUR REGION CHANGING SNOW TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGHER
PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME POWER OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY
STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND VERY STRONG ALOFT, AS THE FRONT
PUSHES IN. ANY DEEPER MIXING WITH THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, POSSIBLY A SQUALL LINE, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
POWER OUTAGES MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4.
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
VERY COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE BIG STORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
NEAR ZERO NORTH TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 20 NORTH TO 30 ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR MID-WINTER NORMS.
WIND CHILLS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 10 BELOW
NORTHWEST TO THE SINGLE DIGITS DOWNEAST. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE
NEARING THE SPRING EQUINOX, WE WILL HAVE TO DRESS IN LAYERS TO AVOID
HYPOTHERMIA.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EARLY THIS MORNING INTO TODAY...
IFR/LIFR FOR MOST PLACES AS OF 6Z. BGR/BHB ARE ABOVE FREEZING
WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, AND FOG, AND LLWS.
FROM HUL NORTH IT'S STILL BELOW FREEZING WITH INTERMITTENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z. THEN
FREEZING PRECIPITATION ENDS IN THE NORTH, AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
W AREAWIDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THE IFR/LIFR SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY ABOUT 16Z TODAY, AND IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT
AND STAY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. W WINDS AROUND 10 KTS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING DROPPING TO IFR IN LOWER
CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW. WIND SE AROUND 10 KT.
SATURDAY...IFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER THE SOUTH LATE. WIND
W AROUND 10 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR SOUTH. MVFR NORTH. WIND W
AROUND 10 KT.
SUNDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE. W WIND AROUND 5 KT
BECOMING S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DROPPING TO IFR. SE WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KT.
MONDAY...LIFR. S WIND 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIGNIFICANT SSW
WIND SHEAR AT 2K FT.
MARINE
GALES EARLY THIS MORNING DON'T SEEM TO BE MATERIALIZING DUE TO
STABLE AIR, SO REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT, FOR
BOTH SEAS AND WINDS. WINDS SWITCH FROM S TO NW LATER TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES. WINDS EASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY.
A GALE WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR W WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON SUNDAY. A GALE AND
POSSIBLY A STORM WILL BE NEEDED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 12 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, DROPPING
TO 3 FT SUNDAY THEN RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 9 FT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 18 FT MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
SOUTH WINDS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001-
002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ003>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...MB/TF
AVIATION...MB/TF
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