143
FXUS61 KCAR 130939
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
539 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
-ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FROM
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER
THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING.
2) SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE WINTRY MIX COULD IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA, BEGINNING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER
THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
AND SPREAD SNOW FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
NOW FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTH. LOCALLY
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT INCLUDING A SHARP VORTICITY MAX AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL WORK WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST
SNOW TOTALS HAVE A FEW CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN AREAS WITH OVER
SIX INCHES OF SNOW WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WINTER STORM WARNING.
HOWEVER, THESE HEAVIER AREAS ARE RATHER BLOTCHY WITH NO LARGE SCALE
DEFINITIVE AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW SO WILL INITIALLY ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING IN SOME ZONES LATER TODAY. ACROSS THE NORTH, THE DYNAMICS
ARE LESS FOCUSED. IN ADDITIONAL, EASTERLY WINDS LINED UP FROM
SURFACE TO ALOFT OVER THE FAR NORTH MAY RESULT IN SOME DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE NEW BRUNSWICK HIGHLANDS. THEREFORE, AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
OVER THE NORTH WHERE ONLY 3 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY THEN ACROSS THE NORTH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND
SLIPPERY ROADS, ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MANY ROADS, ESPECIALLY PRIMARY ROADS, MAY JUST BE WET AS
TEMPERATURES NUDGE NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING AND MID-MARCH INSOLATION
WARMS THE ROADS A BIT. HOWEVER, SOME SLUSHY AND MESSY SURFACES WILL
STILL BE LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY ON THE SECONDARY ROADS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SNOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE WINTRY MIX COULD IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
LIKELY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THEN LIFT ACROSS QUEBEC
PROVINCE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES, WILL THEN PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S WILL ALSO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
A STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS THE
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONTS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST, WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO HIGH
SURF AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY...VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR OVER THE FAR NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. W WIND AROUND 10 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE NORTH AND S AROUND 5 KNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...MVFR DROPPING TO IFR OVER THE SOUTH. VFR DROPPING TO MVFR
THEN IFR LATE OVER THE NORTH. SE WIND AROUND 5 KT.
SATURDAY...IFR, POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO MVFR OVER THE SOUTH LATE. N
WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY. VFR/MVFR
LATE. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR EARLY. IFR/LIFR LATE. SNOW
TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX THEN RAIN, FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR. A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE NORTH
EARLY. OTHERWISE, RAIN. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY.
MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR. RAIN. SOUTH WINDS 20 TO
30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY.
TUESDAY...IFR/LIFR EARLY, THEN VFR/MVFR LATE. RAIN EARLY,
TAPERING TO SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE
EARLY.
MARINE
A SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR BOTH INTRACOASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING THIS MORNING THEN JUST FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
SCA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE BACK TO SCA OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TODAY THEN TO A STRONG SCA, WITH A FEW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE THEN LIKELY LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH GALE
CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY. RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ001>006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...MB/CN
AVIATION...MB/CN
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