784
FXUS61 KCAR 141045
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
645 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
2) MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE INCLUDE
WINTER DRIVING HAZARDS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
FOLLOWING IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY: ISOLATED TO
MAYBE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES, FLOODING AREA WIDE MONDAY, AND
HIGH SURF/EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH A
TROF EXTENDING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GENERALLY
EXPECT 3 TO 6 INCH SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE GREATEST TOTALS APPEARS TO BE IN A ZONE FROM
GREENVILLE, TO HOULTON, TO TOPSFIELD AND DOVER-FOXCROFT. SNOW
SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE REGION TONIGHT, COULD HELP KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THESE INCLUDE WINTER DRIVING HAZARDS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE FOLLOWING IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY:
ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES, FLOODING AREA WIDE
MONDAY, AND HIGH SURF/EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, PUTTING THE
AREA IN THE WARM AIRMASS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT CAUSING TEMPS
TO REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY WITH A
SHARP TEMP GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN
ARE AS FOLLOWS:
WINDS: THE 925MB MODEL WINDS SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
THE REGION ON MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDING S INDICATE AN EARLY
INVERSION THAT COULD DAMPEN WINDS MONDAY MORNING, BUT QUICKLY
ERODE BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS GUST COULD REACH UP TO 45
MPH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
RAINFALL: AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, MIXED PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DUE TO THE CAD. THE INCREASING S FLOW SHOULD PUSH OUT
THE CAD AND TRANSITION ALL PRECIP TO RAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE MOIST SOLUTION. THUS, PWATS ARE SEVERAL
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL ABOUT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOODING: SEVERAL PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP FOR THIS
EVENT TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS. THE GUSTY, SOUTHERLY
WINDS, THE S FETCH, WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 18 FT, SEVERAL HIGH TIDE
CYCLES, AND INCREASING STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED. TIMING WILL BE
EVERYTHING FOR THE PEAK OF THE STORM, WHICH IT IS STILL TO EARLY
TO PIN DOWN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE TIMING OF STORM IS NOT DURING
THE HAT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY: MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, WITH SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, WITH SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR LATE WITH SNOW
DIMINISHING. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT: MVFR/IFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY WITH SNOW.
VFR/MVFR LATE WITH SNOW TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW, THEN VFR.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING. SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX
NORTHERN TERMINALS, SNOW TO RAIN SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SE WINDS
G15-25KT POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY MORNING: IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN PROBABLE. LLWS LIKELY. SE WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE, WITH
GUSTS 40+KT POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: BECOMING VFR. CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS. WSW-W WINDS G15-30KT POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-30KT PROBABLE.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN, MOSTLY
THIS MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE WATERS SUNDAY AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A POSSIBLE LULL SUNDAY EVENING. GALES
DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS MONDAY, WITH STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTS
PROBABLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND POSSIBLE ON THE INTRA-
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE STORM FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE LINGERING INTO TUESDAY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.
CONDITIONS THEN SUBSIDE TO GALES OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
AND SCA LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS, WITH SCA LEVEL SEAS LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ001>006.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
MARINE...ARL/CN
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