672
FXUS61 KCAR 311113
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
713 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7 AM UPDATE: UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO REFLECT THE 12Z
TAFS. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN MAINE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A THREAT
FOR SLICK SURFACES AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES INTO THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
2) CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD GREATLY IMPACT THURSDAY
EVENING, FRIDAY MORNING, AND FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTES.
3) PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN, THAT
COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WINTRY MIX DEVELOPS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A THREAT
FOR SLICK SURFACES AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES INTO THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE WINTER STORM BEGINNING TODAY WILL COME IN THREE PARTS.
FIRST, A COASTAL LOW THIS MORNING, WITH IMPACTS MAINLY TO THE
DOWNEAST REGION. SECOND, A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BRINGING THE BULK OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA. AND FINALLY, A COLD FRONT COMES CRASHING THROUGH
THE CWA, ENDING PRECIP FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
* 1. COASTAL LOW: A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GULF
OF MAINE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS SMALL LOW MAY HAVE A
REGION OF ENHANCED PRECIP ON ITS NORTH EDGE, WITH A CHANCE FOR
BANDING ACROSS THE BANGOR AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGIONS.
TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY IN THIS AREA, LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY
ON FOLLOWED BY A MIX OF ICE PELLETS TRANSITIONING TO WARM
RAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN ON THE FAR
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS HEAVIER PRECIP. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AS WELL. THE LOW WILL EXIT OVER NOVA SCOTIA
INTO THIS EVENING, LEAVING THE FORECAST ARE IN A PRECIP LULL
EARLY THIS EVENING.
* 2. WARM FRONT: A PAUSE IN PRECIP WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE
NEXT FEATURE, A WARM FRONT, LIFTS NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE AREA,
AND THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW HELPS ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE INVERSION SEEN ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, THIS SETUP HAS ALL THE MARKINGS FOR A SLEET MAKER.
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED, AND WITH THE SLOW NORTHERN
PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT, CONDITIONS PRIME FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET RESPECTIVELY WILL REMAIN OVER THE SAME REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN AROUND A
HALF INCH OF SLEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY, AND THE POTENTIAL OF A TENTH TO A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCRETION JUST SOUTH OF THE BAND OF SLEET.
NORTH OF THIS MIXED PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL SNOW, THOUGH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF A FEW ICE PELLETS OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PORTION OF THE STORM. ALL
WARM RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE DOWNEAST AND BANGOR REGIONS AND
THROUGH THE COAST. THIS PORTION OF THE STORM WILL LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT, AND SLICK SURFACES MAY REMAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* 3. COLD FRONT: FINALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
CLEARING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL COME CRASHING
DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS
IN THE NORTH AND LOW 20S DOWNEAST. ANY SURFACES WHICH REMAIN
WET AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET COULD QUICKLY FREEZE INTO A GLAZE,
AND SLICK CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING
COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD GREATLY IMPACT
THURSDAY EVENING, FRIDAY MORNING, AND FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SETTLES TO OUR
NORTH, AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS SYSTEM,
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
COLDER AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWS FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE WARM MID-LAYER AIR
MOVES IN, POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING SNOW OVER TO FREEZING RAIN.
HIGHEST CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN ARE IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST,
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY. MAJORITY OF
THIS ICE IS EXPECTED TO FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, CAUSING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ROUGHLY AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE
ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE. ACTUAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH, BETWEEN 1-4 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE GOING TO HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHERLY TRACK WILL BRING WOULD BRING
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FARTHER NORTH IN THE STATE, WHILE A
SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH. DESPITE
DECREASING PRECIPITATION TRENDING MODELS CURRENTLY, THERE IS
STILL A DECENT MOISTURE COLUMN AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN DURING THE
DAY. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY STARTS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ON
FRIDAY, BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH REGION THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN, THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN THE
NORTH AND 50S DOWNEAST. MOSTLY A CHANCE FOR RAIN DOWNEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WITH A CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK, AND SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH, ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL FREEZING
RAIN IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY. ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT
IN BOTH ANTICIPATING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES, AS THE
PRECIPITATION TYPES OF THESE STORMS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TODAY...AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. N WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS. AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS, CIGS FALL TO MVFR/IFR IN
SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. BRIEF ICE PELLETS POSSIBLE. NE WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS. SMALL IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS AND LESSENING OF
PRECIP LIKELY AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, CIGS FALLING TO MVFR OR
POTENTIALLY IFR IN SNOW. AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR/IFR
CONTINUES WITH RAIN. KGNR THROUGH KHUL COULD SEE ICE PELLETS AND
FREEZING RAIN. E WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...ALL TERMINALS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT N 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR WITH
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. N/NE WINDS
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR EARLY, WITH CIGS FALLING TOWARDS MVFR/IFR
DEPENDING ON STORM ONSET TIMING. E WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING CONDITIONS TO
IFR/LIFR IN MIXED PRECIP TYPES, AND STAYING IFR/LIFR INTO FRI
NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IS HIGHEST AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, WITH SLEET/SNOW POSSIBLE AT KBGR, AND A RAIN/SNOW
MIX POSSIBLE AT KBHB. GENERALLY TRANSITIONS TO RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. E/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS, BECOMING NW FRIDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR EARLY. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND RAIN DOWNEAST. NE WIND 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PAUSE IN
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWELL RETURNS TONIGHT
WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE, AND SEAS RETURN TO 5 TO 9 FT. WIND
GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS 25 KTS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS GRADUALLY RETREAT TO 5FT AND BELOW, AND WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN BY FRIDAY, WITH THESE
CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR RAIN
WEDNESDAY, SWITCHING TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE SE FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB
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