783
FXUS61 KCAR 311907
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SPEED UP TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
- DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY USING HIGH RES MODELS.
- INCREASED QPF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASED SNOWFALL, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.
- ADDED SLEET INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM
WITH THE SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTRY MIX CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A THREAT FOR
SLICK SURFACES AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES INTO THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
2) WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD GREATLY IMPACT THURSDAY EVENING,
FRIDAY MORNING, AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTES.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN,
THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WINTRY MIX CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A
THREAT FOR SLICK SURFACES AND TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES INTO THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE EXITING COASTAL LOW THIS EVENING WILL BRING A DRY SLOT
ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. BY EARLY TONIGHT,
THE WARM FRONT OF THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND.
WARM FRONT: THOUGH THE DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, THE PRECIP COMING IN BEHIND IT WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SORT OF PRECIP
BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIP TYPES, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, RAIN TO THE
SOUTH, AND SNOW IN THE NORTH.
COLD FRONT: HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DRASTICALLY SPEED UP THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND EXIT. IN ADDITION, UPPER
AIR MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE UPPER AND MID
LEVELS MOVING INTO THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. THIS DECREASED THE CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE MORNING TO
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS DOES MEAN A
STRONGER CHANGE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPS AND WEAK E WINDS.
ACCUMULATIONS FOR ICE, SLEET, AND SNOW HAVE INCREASED WITH THE
NEWEST MODEL UPDATES. THOUGH THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE IS STILL CONCERN FOR SLICK
TRAVEL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD GREATLY IMPACT
THURSDAY EVENING, FRIDAY MORNING, AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY EVENING
COMMUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION. WITH THIS SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FILL IN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
GASPE PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD AIR DAMMING PROFILE TO
SET UP OVER MAINE. COLD AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWS FOR
MOSTLY SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE WARM
MID-LAYER WARM AIR MOVES IN, THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TRANSITIONING
OF SNOW OVER TO SLEET THEN FREEZING RAIN. EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS FROM MOOSEHEAD TO BAXTER TO HOULTON AND
POINTS NORTHWARD WITH POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY. BRIEF SLEET MAY RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1 TO 0.3
INCH FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO NORTHERN MAINE. LASTLY,
HIGHEST CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN ARE IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST,
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND ALL OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY. MAJORITY OF THIS
ICE IS EXPECTED TO FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MID MORNING,
CAUSING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. ROUGHLY AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF ICE
ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM ON FRIDAY
TURNING ALL AREAS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO RAIN.
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE GOING TO HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHERLY TRACK WILL BRING WOULD BRING
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FARTHER NORTH IN THE STATE, WHILE A
SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH. DESPITE
DECREASING PRECIPITATION TRENDING MODELS CURRENTLY, THERE IS
STILL A DECENT MOISTURE COLUMN AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY AND
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN DURING THE
DAY. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY STARTS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ON
FRIDAY, BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH REGION THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN, THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY. ECMWF, CANADIAN AND
GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN BOTH ANTICIPATING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
OVERRUNNING, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
STATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES, AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPES OF THESE
STORMS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN
NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH. E WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR
TOWARDS THE EVENING. NNE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
WED NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE DAY. E-SE WINDS AROUND 5KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR. SN,PL,FZRA BECOMING RA AT BHB AND BGR
BY 12Z FRI AM. SE WINDS 5-10KT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...IFR/LIFR EARLY WITH MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO RA FROM S
TO N THROUGH THE DAY. BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON. S TO
SE WINDS 5-15KT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NORTH. -SN/RA MIX POSSIBLE
NORTH. N WINDS 5-10KT SHIFTING E-NE LATE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR FOR SN/PL/FZRA NORTH, RA SOUTH. SE
WINDS 5-15KT.
SUNDAY...IFR/LIFR WITH MIX PRECIP NORTH, RA SOUTH. BECOMING
MVFR/IFR WITH RA AREAWIDE. S-SE WINDS 5-15KT.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SEAS 3 TO 7 FT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PAUSE IN
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWELL RETURNS TONIGHT
WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE, AND SEAS RETURN TO 5 TO 9 FT. WIND
GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS 25 KTS LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN BY FRIDAY, WITH THESE
CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR RAIN
WEDNESDAY, SWITCHING TO A CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE SE FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...ARL/JS
AVIATION...ARL/JS
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