028
FXUS61 KCAR 011706
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
106 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 100PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE AVIATION SECTION.
- EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
DAY ON THURSDAY AND ADDED AN SCA ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT
- INCREASED SLEET AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINTRY MIX CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SLICK
SURFACES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.
2) WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, WHICH COULD GREATLY IMPACT THURSDAY EVENING, FRIDAY
MORNING, AND FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTES.
3) ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH REGION THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN, THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WINTRY MIX CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SLICK
SURFACES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WINTRY MIX CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS THROUGH THE UPPER
PENOBSCOT VALLEY THIS MORNING, WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THAT
MAY CONTINUE TO CREATE SLICK SURFACES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGIONS AS
WELL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT, WHICH CAN ALREADY BE IDENTIFIED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS HAVING ENTERED THE NORTH WOODS AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, DRIER AIR WILL RUSH IN AND CALMER WEATHER WILL
BE IN STORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, THEN WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. ANY SURFACES WHICH REMAIN
WET THIS EVENING WILL FREEZE, CREATING A GLAZE OF ICE ON
ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD GREATLY IMPACT THURSDAY
EVENING, FRIDAY MORNING, AND FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE,
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS SYSTEM,
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
COLDER AIR AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ALLOWS FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE WARM MID-LAYER AIR MOVES
IN, TRANSITIONING SNOW OVER TO FREEZING RAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN INCREASES AS MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE IN SOUNDING ANALYSIS. MAJORITY OF
THIS ICE IS EXPECTED TO FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
CAUSING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL AROUND 1-3 INCHES IN NORTHERN MAINE,
AND 2-4 INCHES IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
0.1 0.5 INCHES OF SLEET IN AROOSTOOK AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
REGION. 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES OF ICE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN MAINE AND
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS REGION. T 0.05 INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE IN THE
UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY.
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE GOING TO HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHERLY TRACK WILL BRING PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN MORE NORTH IN THE STATE, WHILE A SOUTHERLY TRACK
WOULD BRING MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH. DECENT MOISTURE COLUMN AND
PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCHES MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY, ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY STARTS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY,
BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW/RAIN/FREEZING RAIN, THAT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION STARTS AS SNOW IN THE
NORTH, AND RAIN IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, SOUTHWARDS. AS WARM
AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN, CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN/SLEET,
MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, NORTHWARDS. AS SUN RISES AND
TEMPERATURES INCREASE, ALL PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS OVER TO
RAIN. ECMWF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN BOTH ANTICIPATING A ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE STATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF MOVING IN COLD FRONT.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES, AS PRECIPITATION
TYPES COULD HEAVILY DEPEND ON PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...TERMINALS WILL REMAIN MVFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT N 5
TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHIFT N BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
TONIGHT - THURSDAY...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, FALLING TOWARDS
MVFR/IFR LATE ON THURSDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR FOR SN/PL/FZRA. PRECIP TRANSITIONS TO
RA AT BHB AND BGR BY 12Z FRI AM. SE WINDS 5-10KT. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR EARLY WITH MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING TO RA FROM S TO N THROUGH THE DAY. BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS 5-15KT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE N LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...VFR. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NORTH. -SN/RA MIX POSSIBLE
NORTH IN THE EVENING. N WINDS 5-10KT SHIFTING E-NE LATE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR FOR SN/PL/FZRA NORTH, RA SOUTH. SE
WINDS 5-15KT. GUSTS TO 25S KT, AND LLWS, POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...IFR/LIFR WITH MIX PRECIP NORTH, RA SOUTH. BECOMING
MVFR/IFR WITH RA AREAWIDE. S-SE WINDS 5-15KT.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SEAS
3 TO 8 FT ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
WILL SEE WAVES FALL BACK BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT, THOUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 7 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST AROUND 25 KTS TONIGHT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS APPROACH SCA CRITERIA BY FRIDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. E
WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT, BECOMING SE BY FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
CLOCKWISE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BECOMING EASTERLY BY
SATURDAY EVENING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB/ARL
AVIATION...AES/ASB
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