445
FXUS61 KCAR 021738
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
138 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 1:38PM UPDATE FOR TAFS. SEE BELOW.
PREVIOUS CHANGES...
-UPGRADED WINTER STORM WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY, BASED ON COMBINATION OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN.
-ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK,
NORTHERN SOMERSET, PISCATAQUIS, PENOBSCOT, HANCOCK, AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, CAUSING
SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS.
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MORE IMPACTFUL MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, WILL GREATLY IMPACT THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTES.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, IMPACTING TRAVEL MAINLY
NORTH OF BANGOR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, WILL GREATLY IMPACT THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES NORTH OF MAINE, AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SET UP HELPS TO CAUSE SOME COLD AIR DAMMING OVER THE
STATE TODAY. PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT, FALLING MOSTLY AS SNOW. ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING SOME WARMER MID-
LAYER TEMPERATURES, TRANSITIONING SNOW OVER TO SLEET LATE
TONIGHT. DECENT MOISTURE COLUMN AND PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1
INCHES MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION
TYPES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION ALL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO
THE DAY. ANTICIPATING A LITTLE MORE SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN FOR
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AREAS NORTHWARDS, BASED ON A DEEP COLD LAYER
AT THE SURFACE THAT DEVELOPS FROM COLD AIR DAMMING SET UP.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE AS THE SUN RISES, LEADING TO A
CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO FOLLOW SLEET IN THE MORNING,
PROVIDING A LAYER ON ICE ON TOP OF ALREADY MESSY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER MID-MORNING, AND ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN DURING THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY STARTS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY,
BUT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MAJORITY OF SLEET/ICE IS EXPECTED TO FALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, CAUSING A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL AROUND 3-5 INCHES
IN NORTHERN MAINE, AND 6-8 INCHES IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR UP TO AN INCH OF SLEET IN THE AROOSTOOK AND
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS REGION. 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES OF ICE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN MAINE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY
REGIONS. T 0.05 INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE AS FAR DOWN AS THE
DOWNEAST COAST. SLEET WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL AND RESULT IN
SOME NASTY CLEAN UP PROCESSES THROUGHOUT THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, IMPACTING TRAVEL
MAINLY NORTH OF BANGOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WITH COMPLEX PRECIPITATION TYPES IS ON THE
WAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT, WITH
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF US FROM
WEST TO EAST. AT THIS TIME, THINK THAT AREAS FROM BANGOR SOUTH
WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR MANY TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE FURTHER
NORTH YOU GO, THE COLDER IT IS AT THE ONSET AND THE GREATER
LIKELIHOOD FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ERODING ENOUGH TO WHERE EVERYWHERE, EVEN THE
FAR NORTH, WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO MUCH BETTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FOR THE NORTH (WHERE MOST
IMPACTS WILL BE), THINK THAT SNOW WILL BE FAIRLY MINOR AS THINGS
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SLEET, THEN TO FREEZING RAIN, THEN TO
RAIN. MOST CONCERNED ABOUT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TOTALS, WHICH
COULD BE COMPARABLE TO THE INCOMING SYSTEM TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SLEET
TOTALS OVER ONE HALF INCH OR POSSIBLE, AND FREEZING RAIN TOTALS
APPROACHING ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
18Z TAF UPDATE...
REST OF TODAY...VFR ALL TERMS EXCEPT BKN MVFR AT BHB (029).
EXPECTING MVFR TO SCT OR POTENTIALLY RISE TO SCT-BKN030 AT BHB
THIS PM. OTHERWISE VFR ALL OTHER TERMS... WINDS GENERALLY
TRENDING TO BECOME VRB WINDS AROUND 5KT.
TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN SNOW, SLEET, AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP
TRANSITIONS TO RAIN AT BHB AND BGR BY 12Z FRI AM. SE WINDS
5-10KT.
FRIDAY...IFR/LIFR EARLY, WITH MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO RA FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT. GUSTS TO 25KT AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR NORTH BECOMING MVFR WITH MVFR BECOMING VFR
SOUTH. VCSH/-SHSN POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMS. WIND SHIFT
EXPECTED BETWEEN 05-08Z. WINDS SW 5-15KT GUSTING UP TO 20KT
SHIFTING TO THE N-NNW 10-15KT.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. NE WINDS 5-15KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR WITH SN/IP/FZRA AT NORTHERN TERMS
WITH RA/IP AT BGR AND RA AT BHB. SE WINDS 10-20KT GUSTING UP TO
30KT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RA LIKELY, EXCEPT IP/FZRA BEFORE 15Z
FROM PQI NORTH. S WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING UP TO 30KT. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR AND RA EARLY BECOMING VFR LATE NIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT W 5-15KT.
MONDAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DUE TO SHSN AT NORTHERN TERMS.
W-NW WINDS 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER WATERS, WHICH WILL RELAX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS BELOW CRITERIA, UNTIL WINDS
AND SEAS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY FRIDAY AND LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY. CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FOG CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE FRIDAY MORNING. NE/E WINDS TODAY,
SHIFTING SE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFT S/SW BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY DUE TO WINDS, SEAS, OR BOTH. THERE IS A 75 PERCENT CHANCE
OF GALE FORCE SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY
MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
DISCUSSION...ASB/TF/JS
AVIATION...ASB/21/TF
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