819
FXUS61 KCAR 030721
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
321 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-LOWERED TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TODAY BASED ON FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING AND LATEST CAM GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
OR AT FREEZING FOR A LITTLE LONGER IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT,
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE A LITTLE LONGER OF A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION TODAY, WHICH WILL IMPACT
MORNING COMMUTE.
2) ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE, WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EASTER SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION TODAY, WHICH
WILL IMPACT MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH HELPED SET UP A COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO OVER THE STATE THURSDAY, LEADING TO COLD
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST, STARTING AS SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND RAIN IN
AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, BRINGING SOME WARMER MID-LAYER TEMPERATURES,
TRANSITIONING SNOW OVER TO SLEET, SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN, AND
FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENTLY,
SLEET IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY
BEFORE SUNRISE. SLEET MAKES ITS WAY UP TO NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
AROUND DAYBREAK. FREEZING RAIN MOVES FROM BANGOR REGION AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT, UP TO CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK BY DAYBREAK, AND UP TO NORTHERN AROOSTOOK BY
AFTERNOON. EVERYWHERE TRANSITIONS OVER TO RAIN BY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE WET, AND WITH SLEET FALLING ON TOP
SHORTLY AFTER, RESULTING IN A ROUGH CLEAN UP PROCESS FOR
NORTHERN REGIONS. SNOW AND SLEET MOSTLY IN THE NORTH FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE, AND A SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COMBINATION IN
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. MOST OF THE SLEET
AND/OR FREEZING RAIN BY BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR SHOULD TRANSITION
OVER TO RAIN DURING COMMUTE, BUT ANTICIPATING SLICK TRAVEL UNTIL
TEMPERATURES WARM OR RAIN ERODES ICE.
EVENT WIDE, SNOWFALL AROUND 3-5 INCHES IN NORTHERN MAINE. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR AROUND 0.5 INCHES OF SLEET IN THE AROOSTOOK AND
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS REGION. 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES OF ICE
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY REGIONS.
AROUND 0.05 INCHES OF ICE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN MAINE. T – 0.05
INCHES OF ICE POSSIBLE AS FAR DOWN AS THE DOWNEAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE STATE. THE COAST AND BANGOR REGION REACHES ABOVE
FREEZING BY THE MORNING, TRANSITIONING FULLY OVER TO RAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAISE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND ABOVE FREEZING IN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY BY EARLY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS A SLOWER WARM FRONT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LONGER
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE NORTH.
REGARDLESS, PRECIPITATION INTENSITY STARTS TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SLEET IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING. DIFFICULT
TRAVEL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EASTER SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE SETUP FOR THE NEXT STORM SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IS
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S STORM, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
THE AREA AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST,
PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE PRESENT SYSTEM, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PRESENT EVENT, WITH A BIT LESS SNOW
AT THE ONSET IN THE NORTH. THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK SHOULD KEEP
AWAY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS AWAY FROM THE BANGOR REGION
AND DOWNEAST. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION, LIKE THE PRESENT
SYSTEM, WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE NORTH, WHICH AGAIN IS WHERE MOST
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A LITTLE SNOW AT THE ONSET IN THE
FAR NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH A QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND THEN TO FREEZING RAIN, AND FINALLY TO
PLAIN RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SLEET VERSUS FREEZING RAIN,
AND TENDED TO FAVOR SLEET OVER FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TOTALS. BUT
OVERALL, HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR A SYSTEM LIKE THIS AT
THIS TIME RANGE. ONLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET IN THE NORTH
MAINLY FROM MARS HILL NORTH, BUT A DECENT CHUNK OF THAT COULD
COME AS SLEET, WHICH COULD APPROACH 1 INCH IN SOME AREAS WHICH
IS QUITE IMPACTFUL TO TRAVEL. FREEZING RAIN TOTALS UP TO ABOUT A
QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULDN'T BE ENOUGH FOR POWER
OUTAGES BUT WOULD MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL. MUCH BETTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS TEMPERATURES RISE
ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. COOLER AIR STARTS MOVING
BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ROADS REFREEZING ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY, WITH MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING TO RA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. BECOMING
MVFR/IFR IN THE EVENING AS CEILINGS BEGIN TO RAISE. S TO SE
WINDS 5-15KT.
TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS NORTH BECOMING MVFR, WITH MVFR
BECOMING VFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. VCSH/-SHSN POSSIBLE AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BETWEEN 05-08Z. WINDS
SW 5-15KT GUSTING UP TO 20KT, SHIFTING TO THE N-NNW 10-15KT.
SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. N WINDS 5-10KT SHIFTING E IN THE EARLY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: VFR EARLY, BECOMING IFR/LIFR WITH +PL
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, MIXING WITH SN AT THE ONSET AND FZRA
SUNDAY AM BEFORE CHANGING TO -RA. -PL AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS CHANGES TO -RA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ALL -RA IS EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS SUCH AS BHB.
SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, OTHERWISE VFR.
WSW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KTS.
MONDAY: LOW VFR CEILINGS, WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND FOR THE INTRA-COATALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN
AND PATCHY FOG OVER WATERS THIS MORNING. RAIN CONTINUES UNTIL
THE EVENING. SE WINDS, SHIFTING S/SW BY FRIDAY EVENING. SHIFT
TO THE NW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND TO THE E BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (75
PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUTER WATERS, 50 PERCENT OVER THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS) LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY INTO MID-
WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ015>017-029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...ASB/TF
AVIATION...ASB/TF
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