014
FXUS61 KCAR 040122
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
922 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AND MOOSEHEAD REGION MAY LEAD TO POTENTIALLY ICY
ROADWAYS.
2) MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL FOR THE EASTER
HOLIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AND MOOSEHEAD REGION MAY LEAD TO POTENTIALLY ICY
ROADWAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS QUEBEC TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE THIS
EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. AS
COLDER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOOSEHEAD TO BAXTER REGION AND POINTS NORTH.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED AND SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVERHEAD VERSUS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT IN THE DGZ AND ENHANCE LIFT. ADDITIONAL
DUSTING OF SNOW TO POTENTIALLY A INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE ST. JOHN
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BACK
BELOW FREEZING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF
FROPA OCCURRING BETWEEN 9PM-1AM IN NORTHERN AREAS THEN 10PM-2AM
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TURN
ICY IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS THE
MOOSEHEAD REGION TO BAXTER REGION TO SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AND
POINTS NORTHWARD. A FLASH FREEZE MAY CAUSE ANY WET ROADWAYS AND
UNTREATED SURFACES TO FREEZE BACK UP AND FORM BLACK ICE. USE
CAUTION OVERNIGHT HEADING OUT TRAVELING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
FOR THE EASTER HOLIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SIMILAR SETUP TO THE MOST RECENT SYSTEM WILL UNFOLD AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS EARLIER AND PASSES MUCH
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BY COMPARISON. ALL RAIN IS MOST LIKELY
FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST MAINE, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, THEN RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. NBM SLEET
PROBABILITIES WERE INCREASED AGAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
PROBABILITIES DECREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR SYSTEMATIC BIASES IN THE
ECMWF/EPS PRECIPITATION TYPES. SNOW RATIOS WERE ALSO REDUCED
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR RIMING AND POOR SNOW GROWTH CONDITIONS.
TIMING: THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH FAR NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE NORTH WOODS LATE SATURDAY
EVENING, WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING FAR NORTHERN
MAINE AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONSET TIMING MAY BE
SLIGHTLY LATER IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. MORE
INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT LESS
FORCING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE PARENT LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN AREAS, WITH CENTRAL AREAS POTENTIALLY
STARTING AS SLEET. CENTRAL AREAS WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN EARLY
TO MID SUNDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHERN AREAS TRANSITIONING TO RAIN
SHORTLY AFTER BY MIDDAY. RAIN TAPERS OFF LATER SUNDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
AMOUNTS: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH QPF, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM JUST UNDER HALF
AN INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH. NBM QPF WAS PREFERRED AS A MIDDLE
GROUND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS STILL YIELDED OVER A HALF TO
ONE INCH OF SLEET ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS, WITH AMOUNTS
TAPERING TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF
BANGOR. A LIGHT GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE, WITH THE
GREATEST ICE ACCRETION TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE SLEET, BUT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS OF A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS STORM.
IMPACTS: PRIMARILY TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, INCLUDING
SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL FOR THE EASTER HOLIDAY
DURING THE MORNING. SNOW REMOVAL WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT THAN
USUAL FOR THE AMOUNT DUE TO THE WEIGHT AND DENSITY OF SLEET FOR
AREAS WITH THE MOST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, IFR/LIFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING
THEN MVFR/IFR LATE. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, IFR/LIFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING
THEN VFR/MVFR LATE. PATCHY FOG REGIONWIDE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST
10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY NORTH. OTHERWISE,
VFR. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS,
BECOMING NORTHEAST/EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR, THEN IFR.
-RA EXPECTED FOR BGR AND DOWNEAST TERMINALS. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
IS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL TERMINALS, WITH A HEAVIER WINTRY MIX AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF PL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO -RA SUNDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT ALL TERMINALS. LLWS
POSSIBLE. SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30
KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, OTHERWISE
VFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
MONDAY: LOW VFR CEILINGS, WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH, WITH -SN OR SHSN. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR STRONGLY FAVORED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. W WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 2PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 25NM. SOUTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT, SHIFTING NORTH SATURDAY MORNING THEN NORTHEAST. WINDS
15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 6 FT. FOR THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8AM EDT SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT, SHIFTING NORTH
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS (75 PERCENT
CHANCE) AND POSSIBLY OVER THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS (40 PERCENT
CHANCE) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING
10 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO SUB
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY, WITH GALES ALSO POSSIBLE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO NOON
EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM
EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...MWS/JS
AVIATION...MWS/JS/CN
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