188
FXUS61 KCAR 042357
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
757 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:57PM UPDATE...KCBW, KGYX AND CANADIAN DUAL POL DATA SHOWS
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WORKING INTO EASTERN QUEBEC NEAR THE
MAINE BORDER. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATING ECHOS OVER THE NORTH
WOODS BUT BASED ON CLAYTON LAKE AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS NEAR
THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER THIS PRECIP IS LIKELY VIRGA. EXPECTING
PRECIP TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP
OVER THE NEXT 1-2HRS. EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
COVERAGE AND THEREFORE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS. ALL
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES REMAIN AS IS, DID SLIGHTLY TWEAK
OVERALL QPF BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS DID SLIGHTLY
ADJUST ICE/SLEET TOTALS BUT OVERALL NO WHOLESALE CHANGES.
EXPECTING A SLICK START TO EASTER SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL
AREAS WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SLICK CONDITIONS BETWEEN 5-8AM ALONG THE AIRLINE (ROUTE 9)
FROM WESLEY TO BAILEYVILLE. IF THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HANDLE
WITH SPS MESSAGING.
- UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS, SEE BELOW...
KEY MESSAGES
1) MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BRING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS TO AREAS NORTH
OF BANGOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAN UP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
DIFFICULT.
2) HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN
MAINE.
3) LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE DOWNEAST TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BRING SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS TO AREAS NORTH OF BANGOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. CLEAN UP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WINTRY
MIX TO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOWING NORTHERN AREAS WILL START OFF AS SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT, WHILE CENTRAL AREAS LOOK TO BEGIN AS SLEET AS A WARM
NOSE OF BETWEEN +5C TO +8C AROUND 800MB. VERY DEEP COLD LAYER
LIKELY TO RESULT IN REFREEZE OF MELTED SNOWFLAKES INTO ICE
PELLETS, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER SEASON.
THIS COLD LAYER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR APPROXIMATELY 3-5
HOURS, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A VERY HARD TIME WITH THE
VERTICAL RESOLUTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS, HAVE MENTIONED SNOW
OVER THE NORTH, TRANSITION TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX LATE TONIGHT AND TWD
MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIX AROUND
SUNRISE AND THEN GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALL TOLD, EXPECTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND ONE INCH
OF SLEET OVER NRN AROOSTOOK WITH UP TO 0.10 INCHES OF ICE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS APPLY OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS, THOUGH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING UP TO ONE-HALF
INCH OF SLEET AND UP TO 0.20 INCHES OF ICE.
CLEAN UP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH FREEZING RAIN
FALLING ON TOP OF A LAYER OF SLEET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
NORTHERN MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW COULD BRING CHANCES
OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BETWEEN 25-50 J/KG OF CAPE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 KT THAT
COULD PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER. SNOW SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT THEY WOULD BE ISOLATED AND NOT
WIDESPREAD. THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, TEMPS COULD RISE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING WITH THE DAYTIME SUN, SO SNOW SHOWERS
COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK ROADS
AND LOWERED VISIBILITY IN THESE SHOWERS, TRAVEL COULD LOCALLY BE
DIFFICULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE DOWNEAST TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST COULD GRAZE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS FAVOR THE PRECIPITATION STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH OR BEING TOO LIGHT TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING, BUT A
SIGNIFICANT MINORITY (ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF SOLUTIONS) BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO PRIMARILY DOWNEAST. IF THIS HAPPENS,
IT MOST LIKELY WOULD FALL AS SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. CAN'T RULE
OUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW DOWNEAST WITH THIS STORM ON THE HIGH END,
THOUGH ODDS AT THIS POINT FAVOR LITTLE OR NO SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT..VFR, HIGH END MVFR AT FVE. RAPIDLY BECOMING MVFR/IFR
WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATE THIS EVENING. BHB LIKELY
TO REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH BGR -RAPL MIX. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
INITIALLY SEE SNOW BEFORE MIXING WITH ICE PELLETS, SE 10-20KTS,
GUSTING TO 30KTS. LLWS ALL TERMINALS LATE.
SUNDAY...IFR/LIFR IN RAIN DOWNEAST TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR MIXED
PRECIPITATION NORTH. 5-15KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS. LLWS ALL
TERMINALS EARLY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR NORTH, MAINLY VFR DOWNEAST. SW 5-15KTS
GUSTING TO 20KTS.
MONDAY: LOW VFR CEILINGS, WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
WNW WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
IN THE EVENING. NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.
TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE DOWNEAST TERMINALS
WITH POSSIBLE -SN, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR STRONGLY FAVORED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. W WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS,
SHIFTING TO S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
THURSDAY: VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. S WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS GUST TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL ZONES
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTING TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
EVENING, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO SUB ADVISORY LEVELS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY, WITH GALES ALSO POSSIBLE (25 PERCENT CHANCE). NEXT SHOT
AT GALES IS THURSDAY, WITH ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
SUNDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...21/SM/JS/JMM
AVIATION...21/SM/JMM
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