618
FXUS61 KCAR 050646
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
246 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNINGS
WINTER WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BRING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS TO AREAS NORTH
OF BANGOR THIS MORNING. CLEAN UP OF THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
2) HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTHERN MAINE.
3) UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BRING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
TO AREAS NORTH OF BANGOR THIS MORNING. CLEAN UP OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR
NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS OF 230AM, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN QUITE LIGHT. THAT IS ABOUT
TO CHANGE. EXPECT MUCH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MOST OF THE INITIALLY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER FAR NORTHERN MAINE, NORTH OF A MARS
HILL TO GREENVILLE LINE, WITH JUST INTERMITTENT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THIS LINE THROUGH 8AM. THE WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT ENOUGH BY ABOUT 4AM THAT ANY PRECIPITATION
WHICH MAY HAVE BEGUN AS SNOW EVEN IN THE FAR NORTH WILL BE
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET. THE AREAS COVERED BY THE ADVISORY LOOK
GOOD AND MADE NO CHANGES. AREAS FROM BANGOR SOUTH LOOK TO STAY
JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING WITH RAIN ONLY, OR PERHAPS RAIN MIXED
WITH SLEET AT TIMES BUT WITH NO IMPACT. ALONG ROUTE 9 IT COULD
BRIEFLY START AS FREEZING RAIN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY GO OVER TO
RAIN, AND LEFT THIS AREAS OUT OF THE ADVISORY.
HEADING TOWARD DAWN AND THEN MID-MORNING, SLEET GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO FREEZING RAIN FROM SW TO NE, AND THE SURFACE
FREEZING TEMPERATURE LINE CREEPS NE AS WELL, WITH FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. 10AM STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD ENDING TIME
FOR THE MOST OF THE ADVISORY ZONES, EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTH FROM
MARS HILL NORTH, WHERE WE STILL HAVE IT ENDING AT NOON.
OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER THAN USUAL IN PRECIPITATION TYPES,
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TOTALS, AND TIMING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVED TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AS THE DAY GOES ON AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. THE
PRECIPITATION ALSO ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE
COULD SEE SOME FOG LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT GOT NEW WINTRY PRECIPITATION, AS THAT NEW
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN COMBO WILL BECOME SLUSHY WITH THE
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING, AND ADD TO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, MAINLY IN NORTHERN MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
COOLER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT, AND THE SETUP LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD FOR SNOW SHOWERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE QUITE STEEP, WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED. THERE IS NOT
REALLY A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT COMING IN, SO THE SNOW SHOWERS
DO NOT LOOK TOO FOCUSED IN ANY PARTICULAR SPOT. WINDS DO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, DON'T THINK WINDS WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SQUALL CRITERIA, BUT THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
STILL BE IMPACTFUL. THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS IS ALONG AND NORTH/WEST OF A DOVER-FOXCROFT TO HOULTON
LINE.
AS THE COLD FRONT EXIT MONDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH SOME INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH THE NW WINDS, THE ELEVATED CAPE, AND STEEP LAPSE RATES,
LAURENTIAN PLUMES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNT DURING THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A VERY COLD AIRMASS SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THOUGH MODELS SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY, THE
850-925MB MODEL TEMPS SHOW A RANGE OF -14C TO -18C FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA SHOULD PUSH OUT THE CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING AND DRASTICALLY COLDER TEMPS WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING WIND
CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY...EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH IFR/LIFR PREDOMINANT BY 12Z. WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MOVES INTO NORTHERN TERMINALS (FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL) AS SLEET
CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN, AND EVENTUALLY TO PLAIN RAIN AFTER
15-18Z. BGR/BHB SHOULD BE RAIN, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE
SLEET MIXING IN AT BGR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. RAIN IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TAPERS OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN IFR/LIFR. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SE AROUND 15 KTS GUSTING
25 KTS EARLY TO MID MORNING, WITH LLWS. LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON, THE SE WINDS BECOME S/SW 5-10 KTS.
TONIGHT...BGR/BHB LIKELY TO SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/LIFR TO VFR
ROUGHLY 2Z. NORTHERN TERMINALS (FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL) MAY START OUT
IFR/LIFR, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE
EVENING. W/SW WIND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS LATER. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
AFTER 6Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
IN THE EVENING. NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.
TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR POSSIBLE
DOWNEAST TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE -SN, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR STRONGLY FAVORED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. W WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS,
SHIFTING TO S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
THURSDAY: VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. S WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
GALE TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT SE WINDS TODAY EASE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND SHIFT TO THE W. THE W
WINDS INCREASE BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. SEAS 5-9 FT TODAY, EASING TO 3-5 FT MONDAY.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
EVENING, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO SUB ADVISORY LEVELS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
LIKELY, WITH GALES ALSO POSSIBLE (25 PERCENT CHANCE). NEXT SHOT
AT GALES IS THURSDAY, WITH ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SOUTHERLY GALES.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...TF/ARL
AVIATION...TF/ARL
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