837
FXUS61 KCAR 060734
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
334 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT,
MAINLY IN NORTHERN MAINE. THIS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD
CONDITIONS.
2) UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
3) LOW RHS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY IN NORTHERN MAINE. THIS MAY CREATE
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST TODAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY, SNOW SQUALL ARE NOT
A CONCERN. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. DUE TO THE HIGH CAPE, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND NEGATIVE
POTENTIAL TEMP, HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR REGION.
BY TONIGHT, LINGERING INSTABILITY DUE TO THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COUPLED WITH THE NW WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LAURENTIAN
PLUMES. THE HIGH RES MODELS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AGAIN, THE
LOW WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT MEET SNOW SQUALL CRITERIA, BUT HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD AIRMASS WILL BEGIN FILLING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
NORTH WOODS REGION POSSIBLY APPROACHING 0 DEGREES IN THE
NORMALLY COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...LOW RHS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW RHS, BREEZY WINDS, AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAY LEAD TO SOME
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
GREATEST RISK WEDNESDAY.
ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
ALLOWING FOR MIXING UP TO 800MB. WITH AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT, THIS
IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH RH
AROUND 30%, ESPECIALLY IN THE BANGOR REGION AND UPPER PENOBSCOT
VALLEY. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS TO JUST HOW LOW RHS WILL DROP
DEPENDING ON IF A WEAK CLIPPER MOVING JUST OFFSHORE BRINGS ANY
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN AREAS. IN THIS CASE, LIGHT SNOW AND
CLOUDS MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF MAINE WEDNESDAY RESULTING
IN W/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITH AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT. DEEP MIXING UP TO 800MB COMBINED WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH, SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO VERY LOW RHS, LIKELY BELOW 30%. WINDS WILL NOT BE NEAR RED FLAG
CRITERIA BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 MPH.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR IN NORTH TERMINALS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR SOUTH TERMINALS. W WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR IN NORTH TERMINALS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS. VFR FOR SOUTH TERMINALS. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR FOR NORTH TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR
IN SOUTH TERMINALS DUE TO SNOW. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE.
OTHERWISE, VFR. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE
OF SNOW EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
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