838
FXUS61 KCAR 130708
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
308 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- DECREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
ANY RAIN CHANCES BEING CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN
THROUGH THE COAST
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIES DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIES DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY, GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN ITS PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHWEST DOMINANT FLOW
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE PARTICULAR AIRMASS THAT IS ENTERING THE REGION WILL CONTAIN
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. FOR OUR AREA, AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE BY AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO.
THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND LOW TO POTENTIALLY MID 70S ACROSS BANGOR AND THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION. IF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES
LONGER TO SHIFT EAST OR THE CENTER OF THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP FURTHER SOUTH, THESE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH.
IF THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED,
IT MAY HAVE A MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES COULD TREND WARMER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH, FALLING TO LESS THAN
A HALF INCH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
OF THESE CUMULUS TO DEVELOP FURTHER INTO LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS. BY SUNDAY, A DRIER DAY IS IN STORE, NOT ONLY IN TERMS
OF LESS PRECIPITATION BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY
DROPPING DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT COULD
PLUMMET BELOW 30 PERCENT.
SHOULD THE RIDGE REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED, TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BANGOR AND THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION POTENTIALLY SEEING TEMPERATURES MAKE A RUN
TOWARDS 80 BY TUESDAY. DAILY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE POSITIONING OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF
THE CWA WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS
ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY, RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES COULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DAMPENED, THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL LIFT
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. WITHOUT THIS CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN, SAY THE WARM FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA,
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE NORTH WILL MORE CLOSELY MATCH DOWNEAST
MAINE AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE UPPER
70S THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SOME AREAS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST, REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. BUT UPPER RIDGING
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS DURING THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN, RAIN WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
MOVING INTO THE AREA, WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE UP TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR
THE BANGOR REGION, WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE
NORTH.
THE 500MB LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
NEUTRALLY TILTED. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SHIFT, THE SURFACE LOW THAT
DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE KEPT SOUTH OF THE AREA. RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH WITH THIS LOW, KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES
CONFINED TO CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, AND EVEN BANGOR AND
THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION COULD SEE A DECREASING TREND IN
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD THIS LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF MAINE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TODAY...VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO KBGR/KBHB BY
LATE AFTERNOON. S WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED. S TO SE WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR. E TO SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR
AT KBGR/KBHB IN RAIN. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. BRIEF -SHRA
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS 5 TO
10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS COULD APPROACH SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY.
SEAS INCREASE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE WATERS, WITH SEAS LIFTING TO 5 TO 9 FT WITH A SE
LONG PERIOD SWELL BEFORE SUBSIDING FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KTS ON THE COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS EARLY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE ONCE MORE THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS 25 TO
30 KTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 7 FT, THEN
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TWD
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