489
FXUS61 KCAR 131752
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
152 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY
-DECREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AND SATURDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A SOAKING RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED LOWER TOTALS.
2) A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIES DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A SOAKING
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED LOWER
TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING OUR AREA
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
REGIONS WHERE AROUND 0.1 INCHES OVERALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS AMPLE MOISTURE IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE.
A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
LOW RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS. GENERALLY
THINKING OVERALL RAINFALL WILL BE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 0.25" WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS TOWARDS DOVER- FOXCROFT AND BAR HARBOR.
SHOWERY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WARMING TREND ACCOMPANIES DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN UNTIL SUNDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUT THE REGION IN A SW FLOW. SINCE THE
RIDGE REACHES ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO TEXAS, THE WARM AIRMASS IN
THE SOUTHERN US WILL BE PIPED INTO THE REGION. UPPER AIR MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXING LAYER REACH TO JUST ABOVE 950MB. THIS
SHOULD BRING BREEZY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME COOLER TEMPS
REACHING THE SURFACE. DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE.
A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW IN THE SYSTEM PRODUCING ANY RAIN THAT
REACHES THE GROUND. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT, WARM SURFACE TEMPS, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND LOW PWATS.
DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AT SLIGHT CHANCE. IN ADDITION TO
THE LACK OF RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS COULD BRING RH
VALUES BETWEEN 30-40%.
SHOULD THE RIDGE REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
CURRENTLY PROJECTED, TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BANGOR AND THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION POTENTIALLY SEEING TEMPERATURES MAKE A RUN
TOWARDS 80 BY TUESDAY. DAILY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL
HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE POSITIONING OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF
THE CWA WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF THE WARM FRONT STALLS
ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY, RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES COULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES DAMPENED, THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL LIFT
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. WITHOUT THIS CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN, SAY THE WARM FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA,
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE NORTH WILL MORE CLOSELY MATCH DOWNEAST
MAINE AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE UPPER
70S THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AND IFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN -RA. S WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN THE MORNING THEN
MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN -RA. GENERALLY A
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH MVFR
AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN -RA. E WIND AROUND 5 KTS.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR/IFR AT
KBGR/KBHB IN RAIN. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MARINE
GENERALLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT SEAS AND WINDS GET CLOSE TO CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BELOW GALE
CONDITIONS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SEAS INCREASE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE WATERS, WITH SEAS LIFTING TO 5 TO 9 FT WITH A SE
LONG PERIOD SWELL BEFORE SUBSIDING FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KTS ON THE COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS EARLY ON
FRIDAY. WINDS INCREASE ONCE MORE THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS 25 TO
30 KTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 7 FT, THEN
WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARL/SM
AVIATION...ARL/SM
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