782
FXUS61 KCAR 140944
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
544 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO REFLECT 12Z TAFS
- INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
2) A DRIER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING
GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY, GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE EAST
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN ITS PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHWEST DOMINANT FLOW
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION.
THE PARTICULAR AIR MASS THAT IS ENTERING THE REGION WILL
CONTAIN ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. FOR OUR AREA, AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE BY AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO.
THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
REGION. IF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES LONGER TO
SHIFT EAST OR THE CENTER OF THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
FURTHER SOUTH, THESE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH. IF THE
RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, IT MAY
HAVE A MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES COULD TREND WARMER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S, PARTICULARLY ACROSS BANGOR
AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. DAILY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS WELL. FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE POSITIONING OF A WARM
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA GETS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF THE WARM FRONT
STALLS ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY, RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DAMPENED, THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
LIFT INTO THE UPPER 60S AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. WITHOUT THIS
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN, SAY THE WARM FRONT STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA, THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE NORTH WILL MORE CLOSELY MATCH
DOWNEAST MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DRIER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL FURTHER
DRY OUT THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH, FALLING TO LESS THAN
A HALF INCH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY DROPPING
DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT COULD PLUMMET
BELOW 30 PERCENT, AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND A DEEP POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD LIMIT DRYING EFFORTS, BUT BY MONDAY THE
PRESENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AND THE RISK OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...IFR NORTH THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR FOR BGR/BHB,
THEN ALL TERMINALS IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. S TO SE WIND 5
TO 10 KT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES BGR/BHB. E
TO NE WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. E TO NR WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH SOME
LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE AT KBGR/KBHB BEHIND RECENT RAIN. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SATURDAY...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED -SHRA
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING
20 TO 25 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MAY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE INTRACOASTALS THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS
INCREASE ONCE MORE THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SEAS INCREASING TO 5 TO 7 FT, THEN WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TWD
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