098
FXUS61 KCAR 141829
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
229 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MERGED THE TWO KEY MESSAGES INTO ONE
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND DRY FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM AND DRY FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THE RESULT SHOULD BE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK, SOMERSET, AND PISCATIQUIS COUNTIES. ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH EXPECTED. SUNDAY WILL NOT QUITE BE AS WARM AS SATURDAY WITH
A PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WERE CALCULATED USING A
BLEND OF CONSMOS, CONSRAW AND NBM50. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND MIXING SUFFICIENT TO TAP THAT DRIER AIR ANTICIPATED,
LOWERED THE DEWPOINTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL WITH A BLEND
OF MIXING DOWN THE DEWPOINTS FROM ALOFT AND NBM10. WIND GUSTS ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD GET UP TO 25-30MPH, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 30%S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON FUEL MOISTURES THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS A RESULT.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
SHOULD BE DRY AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WHERE A SURFACE TO 850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
REGION STALLS OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL DETERMINE IF THE
CROWN OF MAINE SEES ANY SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THIS FRONT THEN TURNS AROUND AND PUSHES SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT, ALONG WITH HOW SUCCESSFUL ANY SHORTWAVES ARE IN MAKING
IT OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF TUESDAY STAYS DRY
OR IF THERE ARE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WERE DERIVED BY LOWERING NBM TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED ON MONDAY AS WELL.
EVEN WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PROGGED INTO THE 20S ON
MONDAY, WIND GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AT 10-15 MPH - WITH SOME AREAS
HAVING GUSTS STAY UNDER 10 MPH, SO ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WOULD BE LESS THAN ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON...ALL TERMINALS WILL INCREASE TO VFR WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS. SSE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR FOR NORTH TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR FOR SOUTH
TERMINALS DUE TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR FOR NORTH TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR FOR SOUTH
TERMINALS IN THE MORNING, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. NE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH ANY SHOWERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WSW WINDS G15KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH ANY SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS G15-25KT
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER LATE AT FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. IN
ADDITION, SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. BY FRIDAY, SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-8 FT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN REACH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL COASTAL WATERS SHOULD THEN
EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON THE OUTER WATERS, GUSTS OF 25-30 KT AND SEAS UP TO 7 FT ARE
LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW
25 KT AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...ARL/PM
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