873
FXUS61 KCAR 150935
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
535 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO REFLECT UPCOMING 12Z TAFS
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
SUNDAY MORNING
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARM AND DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EXIT TO THE EAST THIS
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ITS
PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHWEST DOMINANT FLOW ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA, ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. THE
PARTICULAR AIRMASS THAT IS ENTERING THE REGION WILL CONTAIN
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. FOR OUR AREA, AT THE NORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE BY AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO.
THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. IF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES LONGER
TO SHIFT EAST OR THE CENTER OF THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SETS
UP FURTHER SOUTH, THESE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH. IF
THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS IS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED, IT
MAY HAVE A MORE DOMINANT INFLUENCE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND
TEMPERATURES COULD TREND WARMER THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE SUBSIDENCE PATTERN INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH, FALLING TO LESS THAN
A HALF INCH BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY, A WEAK
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY
OUT ONCE MORE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH CONTINUED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. HEADING INTO MONDAY, THERE EXISTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THAT COULD PLUMMET BELOW 30 PERCENT, AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP POCKET OF DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN THE WARM, MORE MOIST AIR ADVECTION TO
THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, RE-ENERGIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH FUEL THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
EARLY GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 1000
J/KG WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, AND THESE INGREDIENTS
COULD HELP WITH NOT ONLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LONGER DURATION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
WARM FRONT.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY...VFR NORTH, MVFR FOR KBGR/KBHB IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. E TO
NE WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TONIGHT...VFR. S TO SW WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY...VFR. W TO SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. W TO NW WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS,
SHIFTING S BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...OVERALL VFR, WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN
SHOWERS. LOW CIGS MOST LIKELY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS RANGING
FROM 5 TO 7 FT.
SEAS 4 TO 7 FT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TWD
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