132
FXUS61 KCAR 161058
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
658 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7 AM UPDATE: MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW
TO DISCUSS LLWS WITH THE 12Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
2) DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY MAY LEAD
TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
3) THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON,
WATER TEMPERATURES ON AREAS RIVERS AND LAKES ARE ONLY IN THE MID
40S, AND IN THE LOWER 40S ON THE OCEAN WATERS. ANYONE DECIDING TO
VENTURE INTO THE COLDER WATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT HYPOTHERMIA IS A
THREAT. THOSE VENTURING ON THE WATER ARE ENCOURAGED TO REFER TO
OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT, AS WELL AS OUR BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE COLD WATER DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION, GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH,
COUPLED WITH RHS DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER THE WHOLE AREA
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE RISK.
HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY, A DEEP MID LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL
BEGIN THE DAY BETWEEN AROUND 850 TO 700 MB. DIURNAL HEATING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN
INVERTED V SIGNATURE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WITH A PATTERN LIKE THIS, IT IS OFTEN SEEN THAT DEWPOINTS WILL
RAPIDLY DROP, AND FALL FURTHER THAN GUIDANCE IS ABLE TO CAPTURE
AHEAD OF TIME. WITH THAT IN MIND, FORECAST DEWPOINTS ON MONDAY
WERE LOWERED AS COMPARED TO THE NBM, WITH SOME TENTH PERCENTILE
BLENDED IN TO PULL THESE DOWN. THE RESULTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MAY VERY WELL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE DAY,
WITH VERY DRY WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED INCREASED FIRE RISK. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN WAS SEEN
ON SUNDAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, THOUGH SOME BREEZIER
GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST
REGIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE BROAD SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK IS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DESPITE
THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER, A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
CROSS MAINE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, GENERATING INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA THAT COULD TRANSLATE INTO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FINER CONVECTIVE DETAILS, AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE
COMBINED WITH AROUND 30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR COULD NOT ONLY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL RELY ON IN ORDER TO ORGANIZE INTO STORMS,
HOWEVER. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE A WARM FRONT WILL SETTLE
IN THE AREA. IF THE WARM FRONT SITS ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY, THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WITH SW WINDS ADVECTING WARM, MOIST
AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH INTO THE 80S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA, SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOAR OVER THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE, AND PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE, IF THE WARM FRONT SETTLES FURTHER
SOUTH, SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF OR 18Z GFS DEPICTION WITH THE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY, MORE OVERCAST SKIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PLAGUE THE STATE, MINIMIZING HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN CHARGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, THE MAIN
HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS, BASED ON THE FORECAST SHEAR AND "INVERTED V" SIGNATURE ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE CURRENT TREND ACROSS 00Z GUIDANCE IS
FOR THE FRONT TO TAKE THE NORTHERN POSITION, AND WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS DAY FOR THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW MAY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PROVIDING
ANOTHER SOURCE OF LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH
INGREDIENTS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE, THERE REMAINS THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND WITH 40 KTS BULK SHEAR AND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE, SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS
WELL. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ABNORMALLY WARM AIR MASS
FROM OUR CWA, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AND MAYBE EVEN A RETURNED THREAT FOR FROST IN THE NORTH
WOODS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY....VFR. LIGHT S WIND EARLY, BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. SW
WIND 10 T0 15 KT, BECOMING NW LATE. BRIEF LLWS POSSIBLE AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND AROUND 5 KTS, SHIFTING
TO THE S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON, WITH GREATER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN, WHEN CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR/IFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS,
BECOMING SW ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 25 KTS ON ALL BUT THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME
AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. STABLE AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIMIT ANY
THUNDER THREAT, BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD
AVIATION...AES/TWD
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