644
FXUS61 KCAR 161832
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
232 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOWERED WIND GUSTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS 25-60NM OFFSHORE FOR
TONIGHT.
- RAISED WIND GUSTS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- RESTRICTED POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN AROOSTOOK.
- PUSHED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MEASURABLE
POPS TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD, MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MAY LEAD
TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
2) THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD, MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE ALLOWS FOR A A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE NORTH WOODS AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT REMAIN
MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS THE FLOW TURNS NW ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES DOWNSLOPE
OF THE LONGFELLOW MTNS AND TRADITIONALLY LEADS TO MUCH LOWER DEW
POINTS. GREEN UP IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA WITH 60-70 PERCENT
GREEN UP IN THE DOWNEAST WITH 20-40 PERCENT GREEN UP IN NORTHERN
MAINE. FACTORING THIS IN STILL EXPECTING LOWER THAN GUIDANCE DEW
POINTS IN MUCH OF THE AREA AND OPTED TO MIX DEW POINTS CLOSER TO
THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DOWN TO 30-37 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF MOOSEHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN
SOMERSET/PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES (40-47 PERCENT).
TOMORROW, HI-RES SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
UP TO 850MB TO 825MB, NOTICEABLE INVERTED V SIGNATURE WITH
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT THAT WILL BE TAPPED INTO. EXPECT WIND
GUSTS 20-30MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 35MPH. COMBINATION OF
DRY FINE FUELS, GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RHS MAY RESULT IN SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN THE NORTH WOODS, MOOSEHEAD REGION...UPPER
60S FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN MAINE WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE
BANGOR REGION, UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY TO DOWNEAST COAST.
DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FROST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM IS NOT ACTIVE IN THESE AREAS SO DO NOT EXPECT HEADLINES.
INVERTED V IS NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED IN SOUNDINGS MONDAY AS IT
WAS ON SUNDAY. DID LOWER DEWPOINTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH, BY BLENDING IN CONSMOS WITH THE NBM. STILL LOOKS
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT
FOR AROUND 30 ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS, THE BANGOR REGION AND COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT COULD BE
IN THE LOWER 20 MPH ACROSS THE BANGOR REGION. SO THE FIRE
CONCERNS SEEM REDUCED ON MONDAY WHEN COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IMPACTING THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, NOW
SUGGESTING IT COULD STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IF NOT JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING FAR WESTERN MAINE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THIS, ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS DOWNEAST
MAINE ON TUESDAY AND LIMIT LIKELY POPS TO NORTH OF BANGOR. DO
HAVE A SWATH OF CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
MAINE,EXCEPT NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH CANADA, WHERE
RESTRICT TO LIKELY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT.
WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE, HIGHEST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
INTO S AROOSTOOK, DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF THUNDER AS
WELL. THE CAPE COUPLED WITH 30-40KT OF BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW
FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAIN THREAT STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE HIGH RES NAM AND CMC-REG BOTH
SHOW BULLSEYES OF 1-1.5" OF RAINFALL POTENTIALLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF N AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. SO DID BUMP UP NBM POPS WITH
CONSRAW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE QPF IS BASIN AVERAGE AND IS
NOT MEANT TO CAPTURE ISOLATED BULLSEYE'S LIKE THAT SUGGESTED BY
THE CMC-REG AND NAM. THE QPF BULLSEYE DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION, WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS WITH THE RESULTING CHANCE OF HYDROPLANING.
FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY, BLENDED IN CONSMOS WITH THE NBM TO TEMPER
HIGHS A BIT, GIVEN THE HIGH BIAS TO NBM HIGHS IN THE CURRENT
PATTERN.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH, BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WITH BETTER SURFACE FORCING, THE
REGION IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 140+ KT UPPER JET, 40-50
KT OF BULK SHEAR, ALONG WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE, COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE FROM
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH MORE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND THE
RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR HYDROPLANING. ALSO, IF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY OCCURS OVER A LOCATION THAT RECEIVED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TUESDAY, MINOR FLOODING IN THAT AREA
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
REST OF TODAY...VFR. W-SW WINDS 5-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT.
TONIGHT...SCT-BKN VFR. VCSH AT FVE, CAR AND PQI. LLWS LIKELY ALL
TERMS. W-SW WINDS 5-15KT AND SOME GUSTS TO 20KT.
SUNDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION AT KFVE. LLWS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AT KCAR/KPQI/KHUL. WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.
WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE; BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TILL 8AM SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 25NM. SW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30KT AND SEAS 4-7FT. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 30KT ACROSS THE 25-60NM WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, EXPECTING TO REMAIN BELOW GALES WITH SEAS
6-8FT. TOMORROW AS WINDS SHIFT W EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO FALL
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A
NEED TO EXTEND THE OUT TO 25NM WATERS DUE TO WAVES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS. INTRA-COASTAL WATERS 2-4FT SEAS AND 4-5FT
SEAS FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT 5-6FT OVER THE OUTER MOST
25-60NM WATERS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY-THURSDAY. THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD SEE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THEN HAVE SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN RETURN THERE ON THURSDAY. FOR THE OUTER WATERS,
WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE OUTER
WATERS COULD SEE GUSTS OF 25-30KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT. THURSDAY
SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS OF 5 FT OR
LESS TO THE OUTER WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...PM/JS
AVIATION...PM/JS
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