770
FXUS61 KCAR 170729
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
329 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- REDUCED MARINE WINDS AND SEAS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND CONTINUED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IN THE MARINE
LAYER
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD, MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MAY LEAD
TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
2) CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD, MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND A RECENT COLD FROPA, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
FOR THE DAY TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL HELP CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND DRY OUT THE AREA AFTER RECENT
RAIN SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
DOWNSLOPING INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION WILL ACT TO WARM THIS AIR
MASS, AND TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST MAY LIFT INTO THE MID 70S WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPSLOPE IN THE NORTH MAY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY TODAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN THE SUBSIDENCE DOWNEAST WILL HELP
TO COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERTED-V PRESENTATION ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MIXING UP TO AROUND 850 TO 800 MB, ALONG
WITH VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR, ARE ALL INGREDIENTS FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY DROPPING DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGIONS MAY FALL
INTO THE LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE, WHILE NORTHERN RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MAY SIT CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DEEP MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT BEHIND THE RECENT FROPA AND
MIX THESE HIGHER WINDS TOWARDS THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN WIND
GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH, AND A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN. THE COMBINATION OF DRY FINE
FUELS, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOW RHS MAY RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
WOODS. FOR MONDAY, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH VERY DRY MID
LEVELS MONDAY MORNING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO BEGIN THE DAY. A
LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SO THOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND RAPIDLY DROPPING
DEWPOINTS, THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL STALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. EVEN STILL, RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD EASILY
FALL INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY ON MONDAY, THOUGH WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALOFT, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WITH MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH MAINE. FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION, WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, THAT POTENTIALLY BECOMES
STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
BEGINS TO WARM UP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
RAISING THE DAYTIME HIGHS TO ROUGHLY LOW 70S UP NORTH, AND
LOW 80S IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BANGOR, AND DOWNEAST REGIONS.
INSTABILITY RISES ENDURING THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING WITH IT THE
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO BANGOR
AND DOWNEAST REGIONS.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, IS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG OF CAPE, DECENT SHEAR
PARAMETERS, AND PWATS ROUGHLY AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES. THERE COULD
BE A CHANGE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS, GIVEN LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RARE CLOSE TO 7-7.5, AND DCAPE AROUND 500-700 J/KG. ACTUAL
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS LESS CERTAIN, BUT GENERALLY IT SEEMS THAT
IT WILL PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
BEING TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. VCSH END EARLY, WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: VFR WITH DEVELOPING SKC. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MONDAY: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS 5 TO
10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AROUND KBGR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR IN ANY DEVELOPING CONVECTION. S WINDS AT 5 - 10KTS. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AT KCAR/KPQI/KHUL/KBGR. WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM.
WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE; BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: VFR. N/NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING
FOR SEAS AROUND 5 FT AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH TODAY
AND MONDAY, AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FT
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS STAY BELOW SCA MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE CREEPING INTO SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA FOR THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY. S WINDS, BECOMING
SW ON TUESDAY, TURNING NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY,.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
051.
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB
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