369
FXUS61 KCAR 172351
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
751 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
- BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILD, MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MAY LEAD
TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
2) WARM TO VERY WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS WELL.
3) SOAKING RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILD, MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO
MONDAY MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FROST MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
WOODS INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. ON MONDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT, WITH VERY DRY MID LEVELS
MONDAY MORNING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO BEGIN THE DAY. A LIFTING
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. SO THOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND RAPIDLY DROPPING
DEWPOINTS, THE DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL STALL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. EVEN STILL, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL EASILY
FALL INTO THE 24-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, THOUGH WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT, WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. IN THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SHIFT SW AND BEGAN INCREASING 5-15MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20MPH LATE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS, GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY AND ACCELERATING BUT STILL
FINE FUELS AVAILABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WARM TO VERY WARM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CRESTS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH ITS AXIS
EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN SW
FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO A MESO-CONVECTIVE
VORTEX FORMING FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY,
TRACKING ENE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING, THEN
TRACKING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE CROSSING MAINE LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING ITS WAY
OVER THE TOP OFF THE RIDGE SHOULD SPAWN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE BANGOR REGION
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. WITH 750-1750 J/KG OF CAPE, 25-35KT
OF BULK SHEAR, ALONG WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN AREAS OF 700-1100
J/KG, HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS FROM STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH
A CHANCE FOR SOME LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION WITH 0-3KM STORM-
RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 100-300 M2/S2 AND PEAK
ENERGY HELICITY INDEX VALUES OF 1-1.5, AN ISOLATED EF0/EF1
TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ON EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ON TUESDAY, WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-1.5" OF RAIN IN A 3
HOUR PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS IS ACROSS THE SAME AREA
WITH THE BEST SEVERE THREAT. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SEE THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WITH
RESULTANT HYDROPLANING OF VEHICLES WHO DO NOT REDUCE SPEED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE WARM TO VERY WARM, SOME 10-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURES ACROSS THE BANGOR
REGION AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. WITH DEWPOINTS INT HE
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S, THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD
REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT,
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE,WITH
LESSOR VALUES ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELS ARE BACKING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ON
WEDNESDAY, AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE EXITING DEEP LAYERED RIDGE
COULD SEVERE AS A CAP. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
THE COLD FRONT COLD PASS BY DRY, WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL
WANT TO KICKOFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. NBM
POPS WERE AT MOST CHANCE, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE SEEN ON
TUESDAY, SO IF ANY STORMS DO FORM, THEY COULD BE STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE AS WELL, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES PEAK OUT AT 200 M2/S2, WITH EHI PEAKING OUT AROUND 1, SO
THERE IS LESS OF A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK TORNADOES, HOWEVER THE
CHANCE IS NOT 0.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NW 1/3 OF THE CWA WHERE THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH BY AROUND
MIDDAY, BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT, SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND DOWNEAST MAINE. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER, SO HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE AROUND THE SAME AS ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SOAKING RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE AXIS OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. THIS COULD BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE
REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH -SHRA AT FVE, CAR
AND PQI. CANNOT RULE OUT VCTS AT FVE AND CAR. S WINDS 5-10KT.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AT KCAR/KPQI/KHUL/KBGR. WSW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING.
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING: VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. W-NW
WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
GUSTS MONDAY NIGHT MAY REACH 25KT ON THE WATERS 25-60NM
OFFSHORE. SEAS 2-4FT ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SEA SURFACE
WATER TEMPERATURES RANGE 42-46F ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST OUT 60NM INCLUDING PENOBSCOT AND PASSAMAQUODDY
BAYS.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY,
WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON ALL COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
ON THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE
OUTER WATERS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 25 KT AND SEAS 5 FT
OR LESS ON THE OUTER WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/JS
AVIATION...PM/JS/CN
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