669
FXUS61 KCAR 190714
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
314 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADDED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER-WATERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY
- ADDED FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE KEY MESSAGE AND LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE NORTH, WHICH MAY REQUIRE
ACTIONS TO PROTECT VULNERABLE PLANTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE, AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING. REGION WARMS AHEAD OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE,
RAISING THE DAYTIME HIGHS TO ROUGHLY UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH, AND
LOW 80S IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND MID-80S IN THE BANGOR AND
DOWNEAST REGION. MAINE STAYS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NEAR THE UPPER-70S IN THE
NORTH, MID-80S IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND BANGOR REGIONS.
INSTABILITY RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, BRINGING
WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS, AND BANGOR TO DOWNEAST REGIONS. BASED ON SOUNDING
ANALYSIS, THERE IS GENERALLY 1,000 – 2,000 J/KG OF CAPE, DECENT
SHEAR PARAMETERS, AND PWATS ROUGHLY AROUND 1.25-2.0 INCHES. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SEEMS TO BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENTLY STEEP AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND
600-800 J/KG. THERE IS ROOM FOR SOME HAIL DEVELOPMENT IN SOME
OF THESE STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE AS THE
SUN SETS. PRIMARILY RANDOM SINGLE CELL STORMS THAT POP-UP, SO
HARD TO PIN-POINT AN EXACT LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT.
GENERALLY, ANTICIPATING ANYWHERE IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH
HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, GUSTY
WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL. TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO, BASED ON
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY (HELICITY AND LCL HEIGHTS), BUT GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY, THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE,
500-600 J/KG OF DCAPE, AND DECENT LAPSE RATES. MOST FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS, ARE CONFINED TO THE DOWNEAST
AND EASTERN MAINE REGION, DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, IS THAT THERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY (GUSTS 30MPH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON).
KEY MESSAGE 2...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE NORTH, WHICH MAY
REQUIRE ACTIONS TO PROTECT VULNERABLE PLANTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH
WOODS AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY, WHERE IT BEGINS ON JUNE 1. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 540DAM FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK OVERHEAD AND MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, DECOUPLING IS LESS LIKELY EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOST
SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS. SOME CLOUD COVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE
LATE. DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S MAY ALSO PREVENT
FROST FORMATION. EVEN WITHOUT FROST, SOME DAMAGE TO PLANTS IS
POSSIBLE IN THESE CONDITIONS AS 2 METER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE MID 30S NORTH OF BAXTER STATE PARK.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER
THE AREA FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF DECOUPLING OVER MORE AREAS, ESPECIALLY
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER
THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE
HIGHER IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, LEADING TO MORE FROST
FORMATION POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
A MODERATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER AND
EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TODAY: MVFR, POTENTIALLY LOWER IN TERMINALS WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING FOG AT KBHB, THAT WILL
BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MOVING THROUGH THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL. LIGHT
WINDS FROM THE W/SW TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS.
LLWS IN THE MORNING.
TONIGHT: VFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS, AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS. SW WINDS AT
5-10 KTS. LLWS OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD. WSW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS,
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WNW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS NW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
INCREASING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER WATERS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SEAS AROUND 5FT AND SOME WIND GUSTS TO
25KTS POSSIBLE. CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE FOG THIS MORNING. CHANCE
FOR PASSING RAIN TODAY, AND CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON WEDNESDAY. SW WINDS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS
AVIATION...ASB/MWS
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