881
FXUS61 KCAR 200624
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
224 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND IS LINGERING IN THE ST. JOHN VALLEY, AND
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST, REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS THE SUN RISES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, LEADS
TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY, DESPITE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
DOWNEAST.
2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE NORTH, WHICH MAY REQUIRE
ACTIONS TO PROTECT VULNERABLE PLANTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS, LEADS TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY, DESPITE A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST FURTHER INTO CANADA,
AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINE THIS EVENING. SINCE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY, NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY, WARMING THE REGION UP PRETTY WELL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S IN THE NORTH, MID-80S IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
TO SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK, AND MID-TO-UPPER 80S DOWNEAST. RELATIVELY
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
ALONGSIDE DECENT MIXING, WHICH ALLOWS FOR GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW,
PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 30-35 MPH IN THE NORTH AND
25-30MPH DOWNEAST. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S TODAY, RESULTING IN SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY, PRIMARILY IN THE DOWNEAST REGION, THAT
COULD SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE, OR LONG LIVED.
BUT THERE COULD BE A QUICK BURST OF RAIN AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BEFORE SUNSET, PRIMARILY IN HANCOCK AND/OR WASHINGTON
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS ACROSS THE NORTH, WHICH MAY REQUIRE
ACTIONS TO PROTECT VULNERABLE PLANTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTH
WOODS AND MOST OF THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, WHERE IT BEGINS ON
JUNE 1. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT, WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DROPPING BELOW 540DAM
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A STRONG
JET STREAK OVERHEAD AND MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
DECOUPLING IS LESS LIKELY EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 20S MAY
ALSO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. EVEN WITHOUT FROST AND FULL
DECOUPLING, SOME DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
CONDITIONS AS 2 METER TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTH
OF BAXTER STATE PARK AND SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH
WOODS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER
THE AREA FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF DECOUPLING OVER MORE OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO BE HIGHER IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, LEADING TO MORE
FROST FORMATION POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. A WARM FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL LEAD TO A SHIELD OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS APPROACHING SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LATE, WHICH MAY
CUT DOWN ON COOLING POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THE COAST. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
A MODERATION IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER AND
EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TODAY: GENERALLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR/IFR AT KFVE AND KBHB IN
FOG. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MORNING. DURING THE DAY,
VFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. LLWS UNTIL DAYBREAK.
TONIGHT: VFR. N/NW WINDS GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, OTHERWISE NW AT 5-10 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
SHIFTING SE AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER WATERS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
EVENING, WITH SEAS AROUND 5FT AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS
POSSIBLE. MARINE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED, AND SHOULD BURN OFF
WHEN SUN RISES. CHANCE FOR PASSING RAIN TODAY. SW WINDS TODAY,
SHIFTING WNW BY THURSDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AND SEAS 1 TO 2
FEET OR LESS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
DISCUSSION...ASB/MWS
AVIATION...ASB/MWS
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