657
FXUS61 KCAR 040940
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
540 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
-REDUCED CHANCE FOR THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
OVER NORTHERN MAINE
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND SATURDAY FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
AND SATURDAY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH TODAY BUT A WAVE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND HANGS IT UP JUST TO OUR NORTH. MOST OF THE
CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ANAFRONTAL WITH
MAX HEATING OCCURRING BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. THIS MAY BRING
THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR IN SOME LOCATIONS, WITH OTHER
LOCATIONS RIVALING TEMPS FROM MAY 20TH OF THIS YEAR IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE WITH
RIDGE IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER, MAINLY
TWD THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LOOKS
SLIM TO NONE AND WILL BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT OF THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SHOWERY
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MEAN PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE HIT OR
MISS, BUT RELATIVELY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE, MEANS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. LIMITED CHANCE
FOR STORMS OVERALL BUT GREATEST CHANCE IS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND DOWNEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS LIMITED INSTABILITY
MEANS ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY WEAK.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SSW
WINDS 5-10KTS EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 10-15KTS WITH
OCNL GUST TO 20KTS. BHB AND BGR LIKELY TO SEE SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SEA BREEZE. WINDS DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET BUT MAINTAIN AROUND 5KTS FROM THE SW. LLWS POSSIBLE
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY EVENING AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...VFR EARLY WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN
SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
BECOMING S 5-10KTS DOWNEAST TERMINALS WITH SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SE WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS. N/NE WINDS 5-10KTS
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS DOWNEAST TERMINALS, IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE. N/NE WINDS 5-15KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR WITH N/NE WINDS 5-10KTS.
MARINE
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ASIDE FROM A 50% CHANCE OF
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO APPROACH RECORD HIGHS AT TWO CLIMATE
SITES:
SITE FORECAST RECORD
CARIBOU 8788 (1967)
HOULTON 8990 (1967)
BANGOR 8892 (1930)
MILLINOCKET 8994 (1919)
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
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