791
FXUS61 KCAR 062327
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
727 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:27PM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS SEE BELOW. MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA. MAINLY NOW JUST
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK. WATCHING AN AREA OF CLEARING IN NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT MIGHT REACH PORTIONS OF THE
MOOSEHEAD REGION AND NORTH WOODS IN THE NEXT 2-3HRS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND EXPECT ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. NBM THUNDER PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH NO
INSTABILITY HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THAT OUT OF THE FORECAST
DESPITE THE ACTIVITY BACK IN VERMONT NEARING THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
2) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE OPEN WAVE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED IN SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD OUR CWA THIS
EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING, BRINGING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. A BRIEF PAUSE IS IN STORE AFTER AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR CROSSES THE REGION, THOUGH
RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH, CONTRIBUTING TO
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGHOUT AROOSTOOK COUNTY WITH STORM
TOTAL QPF OF AT LEAST HALF AN INCH.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
FOLLOW INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, WITH RAIN ENDING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTH AND DECREASING
TRENDS IN CAPE FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE, HAVE LIMITED
THUNDER THREAT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY, AS THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS HIGH AS 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXITING THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE ON MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO WARM ON TUESDAY AND REMAINING HOT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK AT AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS ALL
TERMS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT. INITIAL VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER
TO WIDESPREAD IFR, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIFR (300-600 FT) LATE
TONIGHT AS -SHRA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, REDUCING VSBY TO
3-5SM. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE S-SE AT 5 TO
10 KTS, THOUGH EARLY EVE GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT
NORTHERN TERMS (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI). LLWS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS
THIS EVE.
TOMORROW: WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BEGINS BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NW WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KTS. NORTHERN TERMINALS (KFVE, KCAR,
KPQI, KHUL) WILL SEE CIGS LIFT TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON,
ULTIMATELY RETURNING TO VFR BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. KBGR AND KBHB
WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE, REMAINING IN IFR THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR WITH LINGERING -SHRA AND BR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. N/NW WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EACH NIGHT.
THURSDAY...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, CIGS TRENDING TOWARDS
MVFR/IFR FROM GNR/MLT SOUTH AS RAIN MOVES IN. SSE WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AROUND KBGR.
MARINE
GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL
AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KTS
ON THE COASTAL WATERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/JMM
AVIATION...AES/JS
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