770
FXUS61 KCAR 091751
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
151 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADDED FOG ESPECIALLY TO DOWNEAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
-CONFINED THUNDER TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT OVER THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THESE READINGS ARE NOT QUITE AT RECORDS, BUT
STILL RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MOST PEOPLE, WITH GENERALLY MID
TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL LOW ENOUGH TODAY TO WHERE HEAT
INDICES ARE NOT ANY WARMER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
DEWPOINTS CREEP UP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT ARE STILL NOT TOO
BAD. HEAT IMPACTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY FOR THE
MORE VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DECREASE MORE
DOWNEAST THAN IN THE NORTH. FOR THE NORTH, READINGS DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS, WHILE DOWNEAST, THEY FALL TO THE
LOW 70S TO LOW 80S, COOLEST NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO A MARINE
LAYER AND SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THAT SAID, DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CREEPING UP TO NEAR 60 AND THE AIR WILL HAVE A BIT OF A MUGGY
FEEL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... THE DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER SHOULD
PERSIST OVER NORTHEASTERN MAINE LIKELY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO COASTAL DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT, WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
WITH THE AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW, WE SHOULD SEE A MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLE FOG SETTING UP
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR DOWNEAST UP TO AROUND LINCOLN.
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW PROVIDES A MARINE LAYER OVER EASTERN
MAINE, STABILIZING THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY, BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY POOR. WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING, NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST, SUCH AS
NORTHERN SOMERSET AND WESTERN PISCATAQUIS, SINCE THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
RELATIVELY SIMILAR SET UP ON FRIDAY, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
AND LOW-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, SURFACE SOUTHEAST FLOW, POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE EVENING INTO
OVERNIGHT. KEPT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO WESTERN
AROOSTOOK, NORTHERN SOMERSET AND WESTERN PISCATQUIS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GENERALLY W
WIND AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH S WIND INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH, BUT IFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING (75
PERCENT CHANCE) FOR BHB AND BGR LATE IN THE NIGHT. LIGHT S WIND.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR, WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE DUE
TO RAIN SHOWERS AT KBGR EARLY. LIGHT S/SE WINDS, BECOMING
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG AT KBGR AND KBHB.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS AT
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IN NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. S
WINDS SHIFTING SW DURING THE DAY, WITH 15-20KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR, BECOMING MVFR SUNDAY. SW WINDS
BECOMING W WINDS BY SUNDAY. 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS, WITH FOG POSSIBLE STARTING
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BY
SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ASB/TF
AVIATION...ASB/TF
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