164
FXUS61 KCAR 092334
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
734 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT OVER THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THESE READINGS ARE NOT QUITE AT RECORDS, BUT
STILL RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MOST PEOPLE, WITH GENERALLY MID
TO UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL LOW ENOUGH TODAY TO WHERE HEAT
INDICES ARE NOT ANY WARMER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
DEWPOINTS CREEP UP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT ARE STILL NOT TOO
BAD. HEAT IMPACTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY FOR THE
MORE VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DECREASE MORE
DOWNEAST THAN IN THE NORTH. FOR THE NORTH, READINGS DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS, WHILE DOWNEAST, THEY FALL TO THE
LOW 70S TO LOW 80S, COOLEST NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO A MARINE
LAYER AND SLIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THAT SAID, DEWPOINTS WILL BE
CREEPING UP TO NEAR 60 AND THE AIR WILL HAVE A BIT OF A MUGGY
FEEL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... THE DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER SHOULD
PERSIST OVER NORTHEASTERN MAINE LIKELY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, SHOWER CHANCES RETURN FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO COASTAL DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT, WITH JUST
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
WITH THE AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOISTEN WITH INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW, WE SHOULD SEE A MARINE LAYER WITH POSSIBLE FOG SETTING UP
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR DOWNEAST UP TO AROUND LINCOLN.
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY, BRINGING SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW PROVIDES A MARINE LAYER OVER EASTERN
MAINE, STABILIZING THE SURFACE. THERE IS SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY, BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY POOR. WITHOUT
STRONG FORCING, NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST, SUCH AS
NORTHERN SOMERSET AND WESTERN PISCATAQUIS, SINCE THE MARINE LAYER
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ON FRIDAY WEAK RIDGING AS A LOW-PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST,
WITH SURFACE SOUTHEAST FLOW, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND SOME
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. KEPT ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO WESTERN AROOSTOOK, NORTHERN SOMERSET AND
WESTERN PISCATQUIS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR SW AROUND 10KT TO GET STARTED
AT KBHB. SSW-SW WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KT DEVELOP AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AROUND MIDDAY, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. VFR IN THE EVENING
THEN IFR LIKELY DEVELOPING AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING AND LATE AT NIGHT AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SE-S WINDS SHIFTING SW-W
DURING THE DAY, G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR, BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER SUNDAY. SW-W
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
MARINE
A LIGHT TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIMIT WINDS TO 15 KT
OR LESS AND SEAS TO 3 FT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND
WINDS TO 25 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 5 FT OR LESS OVER THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. FOG IS POSSIBLE STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ASB/TF
AVIATION...ASB/TF/PM
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