016
FXUS61 KCAR 260702
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
302 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROF,
WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT,
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL PERSIST. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
TROFFING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING, EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UNSETTLED WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
FROM SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE PROBABLY WON'T SEE ANY WELL DEFINED
WEATHER SYSTEMS, PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS,
WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS PRETTY
MUCH EVERY DAY SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE TYPE OF
SITUATION WHERE WE ARE UNLIKELY TO GET ANY ALL-DAY RAINS, BUT
THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE OF A BRIEF INTERRUPTION IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES ANY DAY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS, MOST OF THE STORMS IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN WILL BE MORE RUN-OF-THE-MILL. IF ANY DAY WERE TO SEE A
BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS, IT WOULD BE MONDAY, BUT
MOST OTHER DAYS, THE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE 30-60 PERCENT THAT ANY
SPOT WOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY ANY
DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S, AND POTENTIALLY SOME LOW 80S DOWNEAST SUNDAY, BUT THEN
WE WARM A BIT FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW WARM WE GET, BUT AT LEAST LOW TO MID 80S
SEEMS LIKE A FAIRLY SAFE BET, WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS BECOMING MILD
WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE A BIT MUGGY TOO, MAKING IT
FEEL RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY: MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. RAIN. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST/EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT: MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY, THEN ENDING OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG.
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST.
SATURDAY: IFR/LIFR EARLY WITH AREAS OF FOG. VFR/MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING VARIABLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FOG. BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR/IFR IS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
WILL EXIST ANYWHERE. GENERALLY VFR MIDDAY TO EVENING HOURS
EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVY SHOWERS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EVERY DAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. RAIN TODAY, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG TODAY, THEN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MARINE FOG WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CN/JMM
AVIATION...CN/JMM
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