830
FXUS61 KCAR 271149
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
749 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:49AM UPDATE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE ACROSS THE
BANGOR REGION, INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND UPPER PENOBSCOT VALLEY
AT 8AM EDT. HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
DOWNEAST COAST UNTIL 9AM EDT. THE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
LIFT AS THE SUN ANGLE INCREASES. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY
RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHANCE OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF.
THE DISTURBANCES, ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING, WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ALSO, AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 AM FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY
RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MONDAY LOOKS QUIETER FOR CONVECTION, WITH PROBABLY JUST AN
ISOLATED SHOWER DOWNEAST. HOWEVER, AS THE AIRMASS MOISTENS FROM
TUESDAY ON, THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES.
ALSO, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND WE WILL BE UNDER FAIRLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT, AND
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A MUGGY AIRMASS, THIS IS A VERY
GOOD PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT SOME POINT TUESDAY TO
FRIDAY. HARD TO TELL WHICH DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY A PATTERN TO WATCH FOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE HEAT IS
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET, BUT AT THE LEAST WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT IS LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PLACES GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE QUITE
MUGGY AND IF WE GET AIR TEMPERATURES UP CLOSE TO 90, HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH
IS 95. RIGHT NOW, FOR EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE
CHANCE OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95 HEAT INDEX) IS
10-20 PERCENT, HIGHEST IN THE AREA FROM BANGOR TO DOVER-FOXCROFT.
THE CHANCE OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY IS 25-50 PERCENT. IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE MILD AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL
REALLY START FEELING THE EFFECTS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT: VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING
DURING THE EVENING. VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AGAIN
DEVELOPING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SUNDAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY MORNING FOG. VFR/MVFR WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FOG. BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR/IFR IS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
WILL EXIST ANYWHERE. GENERALLY VFR MIDDAY TO EVENING HOURS
EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVY SHOWERS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EVERY DAY EXCEPT MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. AREAS OF
FOG TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, EXPECTING WINDS LESS THAN 15KT OVER THE WATERS
25-60NM AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
INTRA-COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS. FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY LESS THAN
1NM AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK ON ALL THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CN/JS/JMM
AVIATION...CN/JMM
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