182
FXUS61 KCAR 271746
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
146 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AWAY
FROM THE DOWNEAST COASTLINE.
- INCREASED AREAS OF FOG DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON LEADS TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. SHOWERS TAPER AND LEAD TO MORE FOG TONIGHT.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY
RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON LEADS TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS TAPER AND LEAD TO MORE FOG TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DAYTIME HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR CU TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS ALREADY ON KCBW
RADAR DATA. THE 18Z RAOB FROM CAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME SBCAPE
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS IS SHOWING
>500J/KG OF SBCAPE ALREADY WITH RAP FCSTS OF UP TO 1000J/KG
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HI-RES CAMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE BUILDING TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING. THE 500MB PIVOTING WAVE OVER THE AREA IS
WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW SO STEERING MOTION OF THESE STORMS
IS LESS THAN 15KT. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOMES ROBUST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH WARM
CLOUD PROCESSES UP TO 11KFT BASED ON THE 18Z RAOB FROM CAR.
ADDITIONALLY PWATS AROUND 1-1.1 INCH. NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
LONG LAST ROBUST CORES GIVEN THE WEAK TO MODERATE LAPSE RATES
(LOW AND MID LEVELS). HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN, SMALL
HAIL AND OF COURSE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MESSAGING
CONTINUES TO BE, SINCE ITS A WEEKEND, TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WILL TAPER AND END AS THE SUN SETS AND EXPECTING MORE FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN CALM TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY
RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MONDAY LOOKS QUIETER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AS THE AIRMASS
MOISTENS FROM TUESDAY ON, THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASES. ALSO, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL BE UNDER FAIRLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT, AND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A MUGGY AIRMASS, THIS
IS A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
TO FRIDAY. HARD TO TELL WHICH DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY A PATTERN TO WATCH FOR.
THE RIDGE WILL BE IN A NEARLY PERFECT POSITION TO LEAD TO
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) TO RIDE THE RIDGE INTO
MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AS WE APPROACH THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY A
LOT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE HEAT IS
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET, BUT AT THE LEAST WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT IS LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY
AND IF WE GET AIR TEMPERATURES UP CLOSE TO 90, HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 95.
RIGHT NOW, FOR EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE CHANCE OF
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95 HEAT INDEX) IS 25-50
PERCENT, HIGHEST IN THE AREA FROM PENOBSCOT BAY REGION TO BANGOR
TO DOVER-FOXCROFT, AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AND
THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL REALLY START FEELING THE
EFFECTS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS...
REST OF TODAY: MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMS. PROB30 BETWEEN 20-23Z FOR -TSRA, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY
DROP VSBY AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TONIGHT: VCSH ENDS AFTER 02Z. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR EARLY, THEN
DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AFTER 07Z AS LOW CIGS AND BR. VSBY
DOWN TO 5SM, TEMPO 07-10Z FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WITH VSBY DOWN TO
AROUND 1SM AND CIGS DOWN TO 200-300FT. WINDS BECOMING CALM.
SUNDAY: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING BR/LOW CIGS WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY TO VFR BY 12Z. CIGS LIFTING TO SCT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
KBGR/KBHB...
REST OF TODAY: MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AT KBHB AND NEAR
MVFR/VFR AROUND 2800 FT AT KBGR WITH VCSH. KBGR CARRIES A PROB30
FOR -TSRA BETWEEN 20-23Z WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS VARIABLE UP TO 5KT
AT KBGR AND E 5 KT AT KBHB.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT EARLY
TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME CALM. CIGS/VSBY WORSEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER 03Z IN BR. FG SETS IN BETWEEN 06-08Z WITH TEMPO VLIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. VSBY DROPPING TO 1/2SM AT KBGR AND 1/4SM
AT KBHB IN FG.
SUNDAY: VLIFR/IFR FOG AND LOW CIGS SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR BY
13Z-14Z, AND COMPLETELY CLEAR TO VFR CIGS AROUND 3500 FT BY
15Z-16Z. WINDS BECOMING N 5 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FOG. BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR/IFR IS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
WILL EXIST ANYWHERE. GENERALLY VFR MIDDAY TO EVENING HOURS
EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVY SHOWERS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EVERY DAY EXCEPT MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. AREAS OF
FOG TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, EXPECTING WINDS LESS THAN 15KT OVER THE WATERS
25-60NM AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
INTRA-COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS. FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY LESS THAN
1NM AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK ON ALL THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION...JS
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