770
FXUS61 KCAR 281211
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
811 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 8:11AM UPDATE...HAVE EXPIRED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE FOG SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA. KCBW RADAR DATA SHOWS THE MORNING CONVECTION SLOWLY
DISSIPATING AND PUSHING MORE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. EXPECTING
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH WITH THE
500MB SHORTWAVE CREEPING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS QUEBEC WILL PIVOT DOWN THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAINE IN TIME FOR PEAK HEATING
TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HELP GENERATE SOME MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. HI-RES CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 800-1500J/KG OF SBCAPE THAT IS TALL AND
SKINNY. DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
ALONG WITH -20C LEVEL AROUND 20KFT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT HAIL.
INVERTED "V" SIGNATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS SUPPORTING
GUSTY WIND THREAT ALONG WITH DCAPE AROUND 800-1000. SFC-3KM
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8C/KM AND AROUND 7C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTS ROBUST STORMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A LOW END SEVERE
THREAT WITH WINDS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING TO THE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO VERY SLOW STEERING TODAY
NOTED BY THE CORFIDI UPSHEAR VALUES 10-15KT. PWATS UP IN THE
1-1.1 INCH RANGE AND 0C AT 10-11KFT IS FAVORABLE WITH THE DEEP
WARM CLOUD PROCESS. WE WILL HAVE AN 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING TO
GET AN IDEA OF THE CONDITIONS AS THEY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
DENSE FOG DOWNEAST THIS MORNING.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY RAINFALLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL. DENSE FOG DOWNEAST THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROF SHOULD CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON, DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. DEWPOINTS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 600 TO 800 J/KG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN END OVERNIGHT.
ALSO, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DOWNEAST AREAS
THROUGH 8 AM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY
RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MONDAY LOOKS QUIETER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AS THE AIRMASS
MOISTENS FROM TUESDAY ON, THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASES. ALSO, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL BE UNDER FAIRLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT, AND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A MUGGY AIRMASS, THIS
IS A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
TO FRIDAY. HARD TO TELL WHICH DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY A PATTERN TO WATCH FOR.
THE RIDGE WILL BE IN A NEARLY PERFECT POSITION TO LEAD TO
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) TO RIDE THE RIDGE INTO
MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AS WE APPROACH THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY A
LOT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE HEAT IS
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET, BUT AT THE LEAST WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT IS LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY
AND IF WE GET AIR TEMPERATURES UP CLOSE TO 90, HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 95.
RIGHT NOW, FOR EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE CHANCE OF
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95 HEAT INDEX) IS 25-50
PERCENT, HIGHEST IN THE AREA FROM PENOBSCOT BAY REGION TO BANGOR
TO DOVER-FOXCROFT, AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
OF NOW, THURSDAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX OF THE
THREE DAYS. IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL REALLY START
FEELING THE EFFECTS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. OTHERWISE, VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR.
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY FOG EARLY. OTHERWISE, VFR.
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FOG. BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR/IFR IS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
WILL EXIST ANYWHERE. GENERALLY VFR MIDDAY TO EVENING HOURS
EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVY SHOWERS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EVERY DAY EXCEPT MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG TODAY INTO MONDAY.
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXPECTING WINDS LESS THAN 15KT OVER THE
WATERS 25-60NM AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE INTRA-COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS. FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1NM AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK ON ALL THE
WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CN/JS/JMM
AVIATION...CN/JS/JMM
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