082
FXUS61 KCAR 281808
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
208 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON THE
TRENDS OF KCBW DATA AND HI-RES CAMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY RAINFALLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM CAR SHOWING 1570J/KG OF CAPE WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE IN PEAK HEATING
RIGHT NOW AND HAVE REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. KCBW DATA
SHOWS MULTIPLE AREAS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS AND
EXPECTING MORE TO DEVELOP AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. TERRAIN WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN HELPING 18Z SOUNDING
AND HI- RES CAMS CONFIRM VERY LITTLE STEERING FLOW SO STORMS
WILL RAPIDLY BUBBLE UP AND WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR STORMS WILL
COLLAPSE RATHER EASY. GIVEN THE PWATS AROUND 1-1.1 INCH AND 0C
UP AT 10-12KFT ACROSS THE CWA EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE
STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SOME SMALL HAIL AND INVERTED
"V" SIGNATURE WITH DCAPE AROUND 750-900 MEANS THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR GUSTY WINDS. THIS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH COLLAPSING
WATER/HAIL HEAVY CORES SO CANNOT RULE THAT OUT. HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING THROUGH TO SUNSET. THESE STORMS ARE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO QUICKLY END BY SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY
RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MONDAY LOOKS QUIETER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AS THE AIRMASS
MOISTENS FROM TUESDAY ON, THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASES. ALSO, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL BE UNDER FAIRLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT, AND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A MUGGY AIRMASS, THIS
IS A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
TO FRIDAY. HARD TO TELL WHICH DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY A PATTERN TO WATCH FOR.
THE RIDGE WILL BE IN A NEARLY PERFECT POSITION TO LEAD TO
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) TO RIDE THE RIDGE INTO
MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AS WE APPROACH THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY A
LOT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE HEAT IS
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET, BUT AT THE LEAST WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT IS LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY
AND IF WE GET AIR TEMPERATURES UP CLOSE TO 90, HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 95.
RIGHT NOW, FOR EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE CHANCE OF
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95 HEAT INDEX) IS 25-50
PERCENT, HIGHEST IN THE AREA FROM PENOBSCOT BAY REGION TO BANGOR
TO DOVER-FOXCROFT, AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
OF NOW, THURSDAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX OF THE
THREE DAYS. IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL REALLY START
FEELING THE EFFECTS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
REST OF TODAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. OTHERWISE, VFR. VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH FOG OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY FOG EARLY. OTHERWISE, VFR.
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FOG. BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING MVFR/IFR IS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT THE POSSIBILITY
WILL EXIST ANYWHERE. GENERALLY VFR MIDDAY TO EVENING HOURS
EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVY SHOWERS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EVERY DAY EXCEPT MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
WATERS NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST. AREAS OF FOG INTO MONDAY.
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, EXPECTING WINDS LESS THAN 15KT OVER THE
WATERS 25-60NM AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
ON THE INTRA-COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS. FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1NM AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK ON ALL THE
WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JS/JMM
AVIATION...JS/JMM
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