665
FXUS61 KCAR 282330
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
730 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS
REFINED CONVECTION FOR THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY RAINFALLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS SHOW THAT STORMS ARE DIMINISHING
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. WITH THAT
SAID, COULD SEE SHOWERS LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
POSSIBLY SOME RESIDUAL THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE
BANGOR REGION. STILL COULD SEE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST.
THE OTHER ISSUE FOR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THOSE
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY
RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MONDAY LOOKS QUIETER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AS THE AIRMASS
MOISTENS FROM TUESDAY ON, THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASES. ALSO, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL BE UNDER FAIRLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW
ALOFT, AND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A MUGGY AIRMASS, THIS
IS A VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
TO FRIDAY. HARD TO TELL WHICH DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY A PATTERN TO WATCH FOR.
THE RIDGE WILL BE IN A NEARLY PERFECT POSITION TO LEAD TO
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSS) TO RIDE THE RIDGE INTO
MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AS WE APPROACH THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY A
LOT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES MAY BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE HEAT IS
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET, BUT AT THE LEAST WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT IS LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY
AND IF WE GET AIR TEMPERATURES UP CLOSE TO 90, HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 95.
RIGHT NOW, FOR EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE CHANCE OF
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95 HEAT INDEX) IS 25-50
PERCENT, HIGHEST IN THE AREA FROM PENOBSCOT BAY REGION TO BANGOR
TO DOVER-FOXCROFT, AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
OF NOW, THURSDAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX OF THE
THREE DAYS. IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL REALLY START
FEELING THE EFFECTS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS: 1) A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING AT KFVE AND KBGR IN
ANY SHRA/TSRA AND 2) THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF IFR OR
LOWER IN ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS
HAPPENING IS AT KFVE AND KBGR WITH THE MOST RECENT RAINFALL.
THE LEAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS AT KHUL, WHICH HAS
BEEN DRY AND IS THE LEAST LIKELY TO SEE ANY CONVECTION AT ALL
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. HAVE LEFT FOG OUT OF KHUL AS A
RESULT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY SEA BREEZE AT KBHB AND KBGR.
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER
IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A BRIEF CHANCE
FOR MVFR IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
MARINE
EXPECTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS OVER ALL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1NM
AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK ON ALL THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/JS/JMM
AVIATION...PM/JS/JMM
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