306
FXUS61 KCAR 290648
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
248 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ALL DAY RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ALL DAY RAINFALLS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS,
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH
DIURNAL HEATING TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ALSO, THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THEN TRACKING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS PATTERN ALSO
SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES
TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE HEAT IS
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET, BUT AT THE LEAST WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT IS LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOWS.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ON TODAY AND TUESDAY THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY AND IF
WE GET AIR TEMPERATURES UP CLOSE TO 90, HEAT INDICES WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH IS 95. RIGHT
NOW, FOR EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE CHANCE OF
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95 HEAT INDEX) IS 25-50
PERCENT, HIGHEST IN THE AREA FROM PENOBSCOT BAY REGION TO BANGOR
TO DOVER-FOXCROFT, AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS OF NOW, THURSDAY SEEMS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX OF THE
THREE DAYS. IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL REALLY START
FEELING THE EFFECTS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE,
VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY OVERNIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE,
VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY MORNING FOG. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR.
VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A
BRIEF CHANCE FOR MVFR IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. S WINDS AT 5-10 KT, GUSTS TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER
IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A BRIEF CHANCE
FOR MVFR IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. E WINDS AT 5-10 KT, GUSTS TO 15 KT.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
EXPECTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS OVER ALL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1NM
AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK ON ALL THE WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CN/JMM
AVIATION...CN/JMM
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