015
FXUS61 KCAR 300618
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
218 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR TUESDAY HAS GREATLY DECREASED, THOUGH
SOME POP UP SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
- TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED EVEN A BIT WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN HAZARDOUS HEAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND INCREASINGLY
MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH NIGHT.
2) A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
3) THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES LANDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HEAT
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS HEAT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE BANGOR
AREA, CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AROUND DOVER-FOXCROFT, AND THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE DAYTIME HEAT, LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS OF
ABOUT THE SAME, WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
OFFER LITTLE REPRIEVE AFTER THE DAYTIME HEAT. THIS COULD
INCREASE THE STRESS AND HAZARDOUS EFFECTS THIS HEAT HAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MARINE MOISTURE UP
INTO THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OPPRESSIVELY MUGGY DAY
BY OUR STANDARDS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY LIFT INTO
THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF
THE BANGOR AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION COULD LIFT INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND APPROACH 90.
FOR THURSDAY, WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO OUT OF THE WEST,
REDUCING THE MARINE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA. THIS PATTERN SHIFT
WILL ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO LEVEL OFF AROUND 70, HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST SPOTS, WITH THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND THE BANGOR
AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGIONS POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN FOR THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. ANY COOLING INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY IMMEDIATE COAST, AND YOU WON'T HAVE
TO GO INLAND BUT A FEW MILES TO GET INTO THE LOW OR MID 90S. OF
NOTE, OVER THE LAST 24-48 HOURS, MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT
WARMER FOR THURSDAY BUT FINALLY APPEAR TO BE STEADYING.
FOR FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DECREASE ABOUT 5F BUT THE NORTH BUT ARE
JUST ABOUT AS HOT FOR DOWNEAST, ESPECIALLY THE COAST. JUST A
TOUCH LESS MUGGY, BUT STILL QUITE MUGGY.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL SOME INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND
STILL AT LEAST A BIT MUGGY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD RIDE THE RIDGE THAT IS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN TUESDAY, WITH NEARLY 2500 J/KG OF CAPE IN SOME
AREAS AND 30-40 KTS OF SHEAR. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD
BE STRONG. LOOKING AT THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AS THE STORMS
ENTER THE AREA, EXPECT THAT MOST WILL BE ELEVATED, EXCEPT MAYBE
CLOSER TO WESTERN ZONES WITH BETTER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
WESTERN ZONES ARE CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK GIVEN PW VALUES > 2.00 INCHES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, TIMING
THESE THUNDERSTORM THREATS IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. THAT
SAID, WHEN WE DO GET STORMS, THEY COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE,
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, AND MODEST SHEAR.
STORMS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THIS IS THE
TYPE OF PATTERN WHEN STORMS CAN MOVE THROUGH EVEN IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. WE MAY BEGIN SEEING DIMINISHED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARD SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. BHB COULD BE MVFR WITH VSBYS IN
FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-12Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. WSW WINDS 5KTS TURNING S IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT BHB STARTING ~16Z DUE
TO SEA BREEZE.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A
BRIEF CHANCE FOR MVFR IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT BHB BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z TONIGHT. S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 KT, GUSTS TO 15 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF
MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND
A BRIEF CHANCE FOR MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. W/SW WINDS AT
5-15 KT, BECOMING NW SATURDAY.
MARINE
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SW WINDS GUSTS TO 25KTS OVER WATERS 25-60NM AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SEAS APPROACHING 5FT OUT TO 25NM AND BETWEEN 6-8
FEET FROM 25 TO 60NM. VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN FOG OVER THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS MAY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BECOMING 4 TO 7
FT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL DURING THIS TIME
THOUGH, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ASIDE FROM THE OUTER WATERS,
WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SEAS DECREASE ONCE MORE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCE FOR FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/JMM
AVIATION...TF/JMM
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