233
FXUS61 KCAR 301828
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AND HEAT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MAKE HAZARDOUS HEAT LIKELY, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE
EACH NIGHT.
2) HARD TO TIME STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
3) THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MAKE HAZARDOUS HEAT LIKELY, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE
EACH NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HEAT BEGIN TO BUILD AS 595DM HIPRES OVER
THE TN VALLEY NOSES TOWARD THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL RISE TO 580+
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH H8 TEMPS RISING TO NEAR +20C OVER
SWRN ZONES TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS AND
COUPLED WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTING HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 95-100 DEGREES IN THE DOVER-FOXCROFT,
BANGOR, DEDHAM AND AURORA AREAS.
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 850 TEMPERATURES OF 17-21C AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 80S-MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN ON
THURSDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S (HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST ON THURSDAY), SHOULD YIELD
HEAT INDICES FROM THE LOW 90S TO MID 100S ON THURSDAY AND FROM
AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 100S (WITH A LOW CHANCE AT MID 100S) ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD ONLY FALL OF TO
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RECOVERY AT NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED THE FOLLOWING HEAT
HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
EXTREME HEAT WATCH 11AM-8PM THURSDAY: SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS AND
PENOBSCOT AND ALL OF HANCOCK COUNTY FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 105F
POTENTIALLY A LITTLE HIGHER IN COASTAL HANCOCK.
HEAT ADVISORY 11AM-8PM THURSDAY: NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND
SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK FOR HEAT INDICES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S.
HEAT ADVISORY 11AM THURSDAY - 8PM FRIDAY CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND
ALL OF WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S.
FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH ON
FRIDAY AS IT IS UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FALL OFF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HARD TO TIME STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
EXPANSIVE UPR LVL HIGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WITH RIDGE AXIS NOSING UP INTO THE CWA. AREA WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND TIMING VARIES ON WHEN
THESE STORMS MAY ROLL THROUGH. GUIDANCE IS NOW BRINGING MCS
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS WITH
THE NAM CORE BRINGING SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 09Z TONIGHT
WITH OTHER MODELS DIVING IT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. OF CONCERN IS
THE 14Z HRRR CURRENTLY BRINGING THRU MORE OF A BROKEN MCS
AROUND THE SAME TIME. GUT FEELING IS THAT MCV LOCATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN TO DIVE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO BETTER AXIS OF INSTABILITY, MISSING CWA TO THE
WEST. HOWEVER HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS WITH STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AROUND 06Z.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH CAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT, THINK ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WITH CAPES
BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-35KTS, CANNOT RULE OUT
A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
LABRADOR/NEWFOUNDLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE TOWARDS OR
OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAINLY AT NIGHT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE TIMING FOR A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY IS UNCERTAIN,
SO WHILE THERE COULD BE STORMS ON SATURDAY, THE CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH. HOWEVER, IF THE COLD FRONT WERE TO
DELAY UNTIL SATURDAY, THIS COULD BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS, IF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE HELD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...VFR ALL TERMINALS. SSW WIND 5-10KTS.
TONIGHT...BHB STARTING OFF AT LOW MVFR, IMMEDIATELY DROPPING TO
IFR/MVFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BGR DIMINISHES TO MVFR AFTER 06Z,
DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. AROOSTOOK TERMINALS DROP TO
MVFR CIGS, AND POSSIBLY IFR BY DAYBREAK. S WINDS 5-10KTS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS 5-10KTS. GUSTING
TO 15 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WSW WINDS 5-10KTS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A BRIEF
CHANCE FOR MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AOA 25KTS FROM 25-60NM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS ALSO INCREASING OVER THIS AREA TO 5FT.
INTRACOASTAL AND WATERS OUT TO 25NM WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUMID AIRMASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS (20 KT OR LESS IN THE
OUTER WATERS) AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS THURSDAY-SATURDAY. THE
HIGHEST SEAS SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY. THE OUTER WATERS COULD SEE
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE ON
THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1NM OR LESS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY-
FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ011-017-030-032.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015-016-
031.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ015-016-029-031.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/PM
AVIATION...21/PM
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