717
FXUS61 KCAR 011337
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
937 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR CENTRAL PENOBSCOT COUNTY FOR
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS HEAT, WITH LITTLE
REPRIEVE EACH NIGHT.
2) THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS HEAT, WITH
LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A BIT WARMER TODAY, AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID AS WELL. THE
WARMEST DAYS OVERALL WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH. THAT
SAID, TODAY WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY
FROM BANGOR TO DOVER-FOXCROFT, WHERE HIGHS APPROACHING 90 WITH
OPPRESSIVE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES 95-100F. VERY WARM ELSEWHERE TODAY, BUT PROBABLY SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH AN ONSHORE BREEZE, THE DOWNEAST COAST
WILL BE THE MOST COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION ON
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND BRING HOT
TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE. WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. HEAT
INDICES WILL BE 90-105F, LOWEST IN THE NORTH AND WARMEST FROM
DOVER-FOXCROFT SOUTH TO THE GENERAL BANGOR REGION AND TO BAR
HARBOR. WE ARE LEAVING THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT AND NOT
CONVERTING TO WARNING YET, AS JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN 105F
(WARNING CRITERIA) HEAT INDICES.
EXTREMELY MILD THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL REALLY BE FEELING
IMPACTS AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY LOOKS A TOUCH COOLER IN THE NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
(THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE HOT). MEANWHILE, DOWNEAST AND THE COAST
WILL BE JUST AS HOT AS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTH WILL NOT BE THERE QUITE YET. GENERALLY MID
90S FOR HIGHS BANGOR, DOWNEAST, AND THE COAST, WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100F.
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A TOUCH MORE TOLERABLE, WITH MAINLY 80S FOR HIGHS AND 55
TO 65 FOR LOWS. SO STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT NOT AS BAD AS
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
ALSO OF NOTE TODAY IS AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR COASTAL HANCOCK
FOR GROUND LEVEL OZONE, WITH THE ALERT HIGHLIGHTING AIR QUALITY
THAT IS UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS. IN ADDITION TO THE
GROUND-LEVEL OZONE, SKIES REMAIN RATHER SMOKY OVER THE AREA,
WITH AIR QUALITY IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY DUE TO THE
SMOKE/PARTICULATE MATTER. SKIES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT SMOKY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A PLETHORA OF FIRES/SMOKE SOURCES UPWIND OF
US FROM QUEBEC TO THE ALBERTA AND SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES OF
THE WESTERN US.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE DIMINISHING, THOUGH SOME MODELS TRY
TO BRING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT AND LITTLE FORCING, THINKING THAT ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WITH CAPE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG
AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-35KTS, CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH AGAIN
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE LOCATION OR EVEN THE
EXISTENCE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS. COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, OR COULD BE NOTHING. OUR CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LOW.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT THE FOCUS FOR
FRIDAY APPEARS TO FAVOR THE FAR NORTH AS THERE IS A MORE
DISTINCT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY THE 4TH, THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS, BUT
THE EXISTENCE OF ANY STORMS DEPENDS ON THE PROGRESS OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
SATURDAY LOOKS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST, AND IT'S ALSO
POSSIBLE MOST PLACES WILL STAY DRY. LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET INTO
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TODAY...AFTER EARLY MVFR AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS, ALL SITES WILL
BE VFR TODAY. THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS. SW WINDS 5-10KTS.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AT BGR AND BHB LATE.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT FVE. WSW WINDS 5-10KTS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A BRIEF
CHANCE FOR MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS FROM 25-60NM TONIGHT
WITH SEAS ALSO INCREASING OVER THIS AREA TO 5FT. INTRACOASTAL
AND WATERS OUT TO 25NM WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. HUMID AIRMASS WILL KEEP VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ011-015-016-
031.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ011-017-030-032.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ015-016-029-031.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/TF/JMM
AVIATION...21/TF/JMM
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