702
FXUS61 KCAR 012318
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
718 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- EXTREME HEAT WATCH CONVERTED TO HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS, SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND HANCOCK COUNTIES
- REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE
TO HIGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS HEAT, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH
NIGHT.
2) THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS HEAT, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE WARMEST DAYS OVERALL WILL BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THOUGH. THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE MARINE INFLUENCE AND BRING HOT TEMPERATURES
EVERYWHERE. HIGHS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 90 AND INTO THE MID 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE LOW-
MID 60S OVER THE FAR NORTH BEHIND WEAK SFC TROF. HEAT INDICES WILL
BE 90-105F, LOWEST IN THE NORTH AND WARMEST FROM DOVER-FOXCROFT
SOUTH TO THE GENERAL BANGOR REGION AND TO BAR HARBOR. EXTREME HEAT
WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A HEAT ADVISORY AND WILL RUN THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY FOR HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES.
EXTREMELY MILD THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL REALLY BE FEELING IMPACTS
AT THIS POINT.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTH, REACHING
THE UPPER 80S BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 90S OVER
THE DOWNEAST AND BANGOR REGIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100
DEGREES WHICH JUSTIFIES A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE
KATAHDIN REGION.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER SATURDAY AND ON A
DECREASING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A COOLER, DRIER
AIRMASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
DEPARTING EARLY IN THE MORNING. EVEN STILL, HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY LOW 90S OVER THE BANGOR AND
DOWNEAST REGIONS WHICH, WHILE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, STILL
WARRANTS CONCERNS OVER HEAT RISK DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EARLIER RUNS HAD SUGGESTED A STRONG COMPLEX
OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF.
AMPLE INSTABILITY EXISTS, EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN AS TO IF STORMS CAN EVEN DEVELOP GIVEN
THE STRONG CAPPING. HOWEVER, WITH CAPE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG
AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KTS, CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP TO TODAY. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE STORM
CLUSTERS EXISTS GIVEN HIGH INSTABILITY UP TO 2000 J/KG AND 25-35
KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY STORM
CLUSTERS FROM CANADA COULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT BUT ARE DIVIDED ON
HOW STRONG THEY WOULD BE OR EVEN IF THEY WOULD REACH OUR AREA.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT THE FOCUS FOR
FRIDAY APPEARS TO FAVOR THE FAR NORTH AS A DISTINCT SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER GIVEN THE STRONGER FORCING.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY THE 4TH, THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT IS WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR SATURDAY LOOKS
ISOLATED AT BEST, AND IT'S ALSO LIKELY MOST PLACES WILL STAY
DRY. LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. BGR DROPPING TO MVFR VSBYS
IN BCFG BETWEEN 06-11Z WITH BHB DOWN TO IFR IN BCFG FROM
06-12Z. SW WINDS GENERALLY 5KTS OR LESS. FEW HOURS OF LLWS AT
KFVE BETWEEN 01-05Z WITH 35 KT W WINDS AT 2 KFT.
THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15
KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5-10KTS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A BRIEF
CHANCE FOR MVFR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WSW-W WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BECOMING NW SATURDAY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT N WINDS AROUND 5KT.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR IN AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MARINE
WIND GUSTS AOB 25KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4-
6FT BETWEEN 25-60NM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, DIMINISHING
AFTER THAT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN FOG TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ011-015-016-
031.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
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