137
FXUS61 KCAR 020652
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
252 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY IN NORTHERN MAINE, AND
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY NORTH TO CARIBOU. ALSO RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY, AND EXTENDED THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN PENOBSCOT
INTO FRIDAY.
-RAISED NIGHTTIME LOWS FOR REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT A
COUPLE DEGREES.
-CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SATURDAY INCREASE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER, STAY ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LEAD
TO HAZARDOUS HEAT, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH NIGHT.
2) THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS HEAT, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN EXCEPTIONALLY MILD START TO THE DAY TODAY INLAND FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH READINGS MOSTLY 70-75F. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN NBM FOR MOST PLACES AND RAISED
READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
FOR TODAY (THURSDAY), KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE SAME
IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN THE NORTH AND EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY NORTH TO CARIBOU.
THIS ADJUSTMENT WAS BASED ON A FEW FACTORS. FOR ONE, THERE WILL
BE A FAVORABLE WEST BREEZE WHICH TENDS TO MAXIMIZE WARMING
POTENTIAL EAST OF THE NORTH WOODS HIGHLANDS THANKS TO SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPING AND LACK OF MARINE INFLUENCE. SECONDLY, YESTERDAY
ENDED UP GETTING ABOUT 3F WARMER THAN NBM HAD FORECAST IN THE
NORTH, AND SEE NO REASON THE SAME WON'T HAPPEN TODAY. AND
THIRDLY, THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, AS HIGH CLOUDS
PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MID-MORNING.
FOR HIGHS TODAY, WE ARE EXPECTING LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE JUST A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST, WHERE IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
THANKS TO MORE OF A SHORE-PARALLEL WSW WIND RATHER THAN ONSHORE
S WIND. THIS SHORE-PARALLEL WIND WILL LIMIT THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF THE GULF OF MAINE. DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL REMAIN
QUITE HIGH, WITH LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING, THEN 65-70F IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE DROP IN THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS THANKS TO DEEP
MIXING SHOULD JUST BARELY SAVE THE MAJORITY OF PLACES FROM
REACHING THE EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA OF 105F.
A VERY MILD NIGHT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
70-75F. IN FACT, CARIBOU COULD BE IN JEOPARDY OF SETTING AN
ALL-TIME (ANY DAY OF THE YEAR) RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
THE RECORD TO BEAT IS 73F. AS OF 250AM, THE LOW IN CARIBOU IS
76F AND WE COULD STAY ABOVE 73F THE REST OF THE NIGHT, PLUS
IT'S DOUBTFUL IT'LL DROP BELOW 73F BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
HOT AGAIN FRIDAY, THOUGH EVER SO SLIGHTLY NOT QUITE AS HOT AS
THURSDAY NORTH OF BANGOR. THAT SAID, TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES
UP A TOUCH IN THE NORTH. ALONG THE COAST, FRIDAY SHOULD ACTUALLY
BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE DECENT WESTERLY BREEZE WITH A SLIGHT
OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL LIMIT AND COOLING INFLUENCE FROM THE
GULF OF MAINE. STILL QUITE MUGGY, BUT DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP MOST PLACES AT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA RATHER THAN EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER SATURDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. EVEN STILL, HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S AND
POSSIBLY LOW 90S OVER THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGIONS WHICH,
WHILE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, STILL WARRANTS CONCERNS OVER HEAT
RISK DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES FALL A BIT MORE
INTO SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WE HAVE MIRACULOUSLY DODGED ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BOTH OUR NORTH AND TO OUR SOUTHWEST, SHOWCASING THE VOLATILITY
OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THIS SETUP WITH HOT, HUMID AIR
ON THE NORTH EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TYPICALLY A VERY
GOOD SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS HERE, BUT WE HAVE JUST BARELY BEEN
CAPPED SO FAR AND LACKING THE SLIGHTEST TRIGGER TO IGNITE
STORMS. FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. ODDS FAVOR THE CAP PERSISTING FOR MOST
AREAS, BUT IF THE CAP BREAKS EITHER OVER OUR AREA OR A BIT TO
OUR WEST AND STORMS MOVE IN, SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT
FEEL THAT THIS IS UNLIKELY AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF PLACES WILL
STAY DRY. THE INSTABILITY (CAPE) IN LAST NIGHT'S 0Z SOUNDING
FROM CARIBOU HAD 2877 J/KG, WHICH IS THE 2ND HIGHEST FOR ANY 0Z
SOUNDING ON RECORD FOR CARIBOU. BUT THERE WAS ALSO A LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN), MEANING ALL THAT WAS WASTED WITH NO
TRIGGER TO IGNITE STORMS.
FOR LATE FRIDAY, THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS SEEMS TO BE IN THE
NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD ACTUALLY
PROVIDE A TRIGGER FINALLY FROM SOME STORMS. CAN'T RULE OUT A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, BUT THE
INSTABILITY BY FRIDAY WON'T BE AS GREAT AS IT HAS BEEN OR AS
GREAT AS THURSDAY. THAT SAID, THE INSTABILITY THAT WE DO HAVE
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT ACTUALLY BEING REALIZED AND HAVING
A TRIGGER.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY, WHICH COULD
PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AT A SLIGHT CHANCE, AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SHEAR ARE MEDIOCRE. INCREASING TREND IN SOME OF THE REGIONAL
MODELS FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...EARLY MORNING IFR FROM FOG APPEARS TO LIMITED TO COASTAL
WASHINGTON COUNTY EAST OF BHB, WITH THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING
OUT THE DAY VFR. VERY LIKELY REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON STORM, BUT IF
THEY DO OCCUR, THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. W WIND INCREASING TO
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EVENING
STORM OR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG. W/SW WIND 5 KTS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. W WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, BECOMING MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS, AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. W WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BECOMING NW SATURDAY EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AROUND
5KT.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY
AROUND 2-4FT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME FOG IN THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, BUT DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AND STAYING MOSTLY FREE OF
FOG INTO THE WEEKEND. W/SW WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING
NW BY SATURDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING S BY SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MEZ002.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ005-006-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ASB/TF
AVIATION...ASB/TF
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