928
FXUS61 KCAR 171207
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
807 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
805 AM...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
- WPC HAS REMOVED THE MARGINAL RISK ERO FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO NEW WILDFIRE SMOKE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. ADDED THIS INTO THE AVIATION SECTION AS
WELL.
- ADDED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ADDED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY
FROM 8AM-8PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
2) WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO
MAINE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
LOWER VISIBILITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS THIS WEEKEND AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THIS TIMEFRAME TO AMOUNT TO
MUCH, AND THERE CERTAINLY WON'T BE MUCH (IF ANY) INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH. THE REAL SURGE OF MOISTURE, COMES LATE IN THE EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT/SURFACE
LOW ITSELF. DEW POINTS JUMP INTO THE 60A AT THE SURFACE, AND
THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS WELL, YIELDING
PWATS OF 1.50+ INCHES, WHICH IS > 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLS TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
TRAVERSING THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY, SO DON'T SEE A SUBSTANTIAL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THUS WPC HAS ACTUALLY DROPPED THE REGION
OUT OF THE MARGINAL ERO FROM BEFORE. QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
0.80-1 INCH FROM KATAHDIN TO HOULTON NORTH WITH 0.50-0.75 INCHES
TO THE SOUTH. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IF WE DO
GET ANY TRAINING ELEMENTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH INTO MAINE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN LOWER VISIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LARGE WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN ONTARIO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
AND ADDITIONAL FIRES IN MANITOBA ARE ADDING TO THE SMOKE PLUME.
THIS SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF WILDFIRE SMOKE AT THE NEAR SURFACE
LEVELS CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY IT WILL FEATURE A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH EXPECT THE
SMOKE PLUME TO LIFT NORTH AS WELL. LATEST HRRR, RAP AND RRFS
SMOKE MODELS SHOWS PATCHY SMOKE REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST AND
BANGOR REGION BY NOON SATURDAY THEN TOWARDS EVENING EXPECTING
PATCHY SMOKE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AREAS OF SMOKE (POTENTIALLY
THICK) FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST
COAST. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING TILL THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMES NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD THEN SMOKE WILL
DISSIPATE. THE LATEST AIR QUALITY FORECAST FROM THE MAINE
DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION SHOWS MODERATE PARTICLE
POLLUTION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 5-15KTS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS,
BECOMING LIGHT WSW TONIGHT.
SATURDAY...PATCHY SMOKE COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING, POTENTIALLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THEN MVFR BHB, BGR AND POSSIBLY HUL IN
-SHRA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. S WINDS 5-15KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS. S
WINDS 10-20KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. NW WINDS 10-20KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS,
THEN BECOMING W 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5-10KTS, BECOMING S TUESDAY
MORNING 5-15TS GUSTING TO 20KTS.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING AND SEAS RISE
TO 5-8 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SO SCAS ARE LIKELY DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. CANNOT RULE OUT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS FROM 25-60NM SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH
WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS A RESULT.
SEAS DROP BELOW 5FT BY SUNDAY EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION...21/JS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page