669
FXUS61 KCAR 171738
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
138 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING A WETTING RAIN TO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO MAINE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN LOWER
VISIBILITY.
3) A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN WARM ADVECTION. AS THE
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN MAINE EXPECT RAIN TO GET HEAVIER AS
A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. PW VALUES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING 1.50+ INCHES.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDER TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. GOOD CALL TO
REMOVE THE AREA FROM THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. IT
APPEARS THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH
MAY BE ROBBED OF MOISTURE WITH RAIN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RFQ OF THE UPR LEVEL JET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO MAINE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN LOWER VISIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LARGE WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN ONTARIO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
ADDITIONAL FIRES IN MANITOBA ARE ADDING TO THE SMOKE PLUME.
THIS SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF WILDFIRE SMOKE AT THE NEAR SURFACE LEVELS
CONTINUES TO BE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY IT WILL FEATURE A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH EXPECT THE SMOKE PLUME
TO LIFT NORTH AS WELL. LATEST HRRR, RAP AND RRFS SMOKE MODELS SHOWS
PATCHY SMOKE REACHING THE DOWNEAST COAST AROUND NOON SATURDAY THEN
TOWARDS EVENING EXPECTING PATCHY SMOKE ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP TO DISSIPATE THE SMOKE BEFORE IT BECOMES TOO
THICK. THE LATEST AIR QUALITY FORECAST FROM THE MAINE DEPARTMENT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION SHOWS MODERATE PARTICLE POLLUTION IS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST AND PASSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. A STEADY, WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY WITH
THE SYSTEM. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70-80% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE STORM WHICH SHOULD HELP
PROVIDE RELIEF FOR SOME OF RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 5-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25KTS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WSW WINDS 5 5-10KTS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING. PATCHY SMOKE COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES IN THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS
IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. S WINDS 5-15KTS,
GUSTING TO 25KTS DOWNEAST LATE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS. S
WINDS 10-20KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, MVFR NORTH IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS.
NW WINDS 10-20KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS, THEN BECOMING W 5-10KTS
OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5-10KTS, BECOMING S TUESDAY
MORNING 5-15TS GUSTING TO 25KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...DECREASING TO MVFR EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY REACHING IFR WEDNESDAY IN RAIN. S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH
SATURDAY EVENING AND SEAS RISE TO 5-8 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 19Z SAT-18Z SUN
FOR WINDS AND SEAS. INTRACOASTAL ZONE MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY OVER THE WATERS FROM
25-60NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WARNING FOR THIS TIME.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, THEN
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ080-
081.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
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