844
FXUS61 KCAR 181751
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
151 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
3) A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO HELP
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
1000MB SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SWRN QUEBEC IS DRAWING MOISTURE
INTO CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ENTERED WRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STEADIER RAIN STILL BACK IN
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS ATTM. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS IN WARM ADVECTION. THERE ARE 2
MAIN AREAS OF RAIN WITH THE LOPRES SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING THRU
SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN TIP OF MAINE.
THE SECOND AREA LOOKS TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE DOWNEAST COAST
AND IS JUXTAPOSED WITH THE FAVORABLE REGION OF THE UPR LVL JET
AND THE STRONGER VORT MAX MOVING THRU. AS FAR AS THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS GOES BELIEVE THAT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH
AREA IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LIFT. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN
CONSIDERING WIDESPREAD STORMS UPSTREAM OF US. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.50-0.75 INCHES OVER NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK WITH 0.25-0.50 INCHES ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS A LOCAL
MINIMUM AROUND THE BANGOR REGION.
AS FAR AS THE SMOKE GOES FOR TONIGHT, HAVE LOST TRACK OF WHERE
IT IS LOCATED AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LAST TIME IT WAS VISIBLE
ON SATELLITE WAS OVER CAPE COD AND THIS CORRELATES WITH THE
MODERATE AIR QUALITY BEING PICKED UP BY SENSORS IN EASTERN MA.
LATEST RUN OF THE RAP FOR NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS INDICATING
PATCHY AT BEST SO HAVE REMOVED AREAS OF SMOKE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, A BRIEF SURGE OF COASTAL FOG IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH AS FLOW QUICKLY TURNS WNW THAT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST. AT ANY RATE, SOMETHING TO
BE MINDFUL OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BE OUT
DRIVING IN THAT AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO HELP WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY FROM THE WEST AND PASSES TO OUR
NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. A
STEADY, WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM. CURRENT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70-80% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL AND A 30-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH
THE STORM WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE RELIEF FOR SOME OF RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS. 30 DAY PRECIP DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING 60-80
PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE BANGOR REGION, CENTRAL HIGHLANDS,
INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. NEAR SURFACE SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL INDICATING THE RECENT DRY
SPELL. LASTLY THE RECENT DRY SPELL IS NOTICEABLE BY STREAMFLOWS
ACROSS THE CWA IN THE BELOW NORMAL TO LOW END NORMAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE ST. JOHN AND PENOBSCOT BASINS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
ST. CROIX BASIN GENERALLY IN THE BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z...VFR BEFORE DECREASING TO MVFR IN RAIN BY 20Z
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS AND BY 23Z AT HUL, BGR AND BHB. SSW
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE DOWNEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
STORMS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE -TSRA AT THIS
TIME. S WINDS 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS. LLWS
VALUES AROUND 30-45 KNOTS AT 2KFT AT BGR AND BHB. AS RAIN
DEPARTS, SOME COASTAL FOG COULD IMPACT BHB AND BGR PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 5-15KTS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5-10KTS, BECOMING S TUESDAY
MORNING 10-15TS GUSTING TO 25KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...DECREASING TO MVFR EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LIKELY REACHING IFR WEDNESDAY IN RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IMPROVING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER. W/SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
SCA IN EFFECT FOR INTRACOASTAL AND WATERS OUT TO 25NM WITH A
GALE WARNING FOR WATERS OUT TO 25-60NM AND THE HAGUE LINE. SEAS
WILL RAMP UP TO BETWEEN 5-8 FEET IN SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS EVENING
BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING BELOW 5FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. S WINDS WILL
DROP BELOW 35KTS BY 09Z TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS EARLY-MID MORNING SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS DECREASE
BELOW CRITERIA THURSDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. SEAS PEAK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 6 TO 9 FT ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, 8 TO 10
FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 9 TO 11 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>006-
010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
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