590
FXUS61 KCAR 190628
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WETTING RAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO
HELP WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO HELP
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE MOIST SYSTEM WITH INCREASING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT IS STILL INCONSISTENT. NEVERTHELESS, GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 70-80% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL AND A
30-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THE STORM
WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE RELIEF FOR SOME OF RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERALLY IFR OR LIFR TO GET STARTED WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
VLIFR, INCLUDING AT KFVE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING TO IFR AT KFVE, MVFR AT KCAR/KPQI/KHUL AND TO VFR AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING AT MOST, IF NOT ALL TERMINALS, THEN BECOME W-WNW AND
GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 11-15Z, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KT. GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE AT ALL BUT KFVE THIS EVENING. WINDS AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS COULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY: VFR. S-SE WINDS G20-30KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. TS POSSIBLE
WED AFTERNOON. SSE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. IMPROVING TO
VFR THURSDAY. WSW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS BELOW SCA LEVELS - BUT SEAS
ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS RUNNING 4-7 FT. SO WILL CANCEL THE
GALES ON THE OUTER WATERS AND THE SCA ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS, AND LET THE SCA RIDE AS IS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.
THE DAY SHIFT MIGHT NEED TO ADJUST THE END TIME THERE, EITHER
FORWARD OR BACK - DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SEAS ACTUALLY FALL.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FT ON ALL
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA THURSDAY BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. SEAS
PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 6 TO 9 FT ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, 8
TO 10 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 9 TO 11 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...ARL/PM
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