646
FXUS61 KCAR 192345
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
745 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:45PM UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS MAINLY IMPACTING AVIATION FOR
THE 00Z TAFS. SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE THE BEACH
HAZARD STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 8PM EDT.
MAIN FORECAST CHANGES...
- KEPT THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- CONTINUED CONFIDENCE IN WETTING RAIN ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TO
HELP WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, TO HELP WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FRONTS PASS ALONG SOUTHERN MAINE, AND AS A RESULT, DOWNEAST
MAINE IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH QPF
OUTPUTS GENERALLY 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES. NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COULD
SEE AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WARM FRONT BOUNDARY, AND POTENTIALLY IN CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND AROOSTOOK COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. GROUNDS ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND RAINFALL
WILL BE STEADY, SO NOT ANTICIPATING FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT...VFR. SKC OR FEW HIGH CIGS TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE ALL TERMS. LLWS AT FL020 OUT OF
THE NW 35-45KTS FVE, CAR AND PQI.
MONDAY...VFR. JUST AFTERNOON HIGHER CIGS. W WINDS 5-15KTS
GUSTING TO 20KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5-10KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. TS
POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON. FOG AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SSE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. RESIDUAL TS
POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING TO VFR THURSDAY. WSW
WINDS 5-10 KTS. WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...VFR. WSW WINDS 5 - 10 KTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH SEAS
AROUND 5FT WILL LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. AFTER SEAS DROP,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
CONDITIONS RAMP ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. GALES POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS STAY ELEVATED UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WAVES STAY ELEVATED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
WAVES PEAK TO ABOUT 9-11 FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT, INTO WEDNESDAY. ALSO A CHANCE
FOR FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. S/SE WINDS ON TUESDAY,
SHIFTING S/SW WEDNESDAY EVENING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ASB/21/JS
AVIATION...ASB/21/JS
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