915
FXUS61 KCAR 201140
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
740 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
740 AM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
- ADDED A KEY MESSAGE FOR THE ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE, AND FLOODING RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
2) ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE, AND FLOODING RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY PERIOD, WE ARE MOST LIKELY
LOOKING AT TWO PRIMARY ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY. THE FIRST COMES
MAINLY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT TO MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM SW TO NE. WE ARE LOOKING AT RAIN
EVERYWHERE, WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS MAINLY OVER
DOWNEAST. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE SURFACE-BASED AND WILL NOT BE
STRONG OR SEVERE. WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY DECENT RAIN
TOTALS FROM THIS ROUND OF RAIN, ROUGHLY 0.5 TO 1 INCH, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS DOWNEAST. ADVECTION FOG THANKS TO ONSHORE
FLOW COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY AM, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST BUT POSSIBLY INLAND TOO.
AFTER THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT TO MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK FROM MID-
MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT'S UNLIKELY MANY PLACES
WILL SEE ANY SUN, AS THE MOIST, MUGGY ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AND
EVEN THOUGH THERE WON'T BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN MID-MORNING TO MID-
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, THERE COULD STILL BE INTERMITTENT LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMES THE SECOND ROUND OF ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
BE PRIMARILY IN THE NORTH AND MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
WOODS WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THAT SAID,
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST AND THERE WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR.
IF WE DO GET MORE SURFACE HEATING, IT COULD BE A DIFFERENT
STORY, BUT FOR NOW THINK WE WILL JUST GET SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
NON-SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.5 OF RAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTH. THE
RAIN TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT SOME FOG COULD LINGER. A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
UNUSUALLY ROUGH SEAS BY LATE JULY STANDARDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS USUALLY THE QUIETEST TIME OF YEAR ON
THE WATERS, BUT SEAS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6-9 FEET ARE
EXPECTED UP TO THE COASTLINE, COMING MAINLY AS A LONGER 10
SECOND PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH. WHAT THIS MEANS IS FOLKS
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF RECREATING.
SITUATIONS LIKE THIS HAVE RESULTED IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO
THE OCEAN BY LARGER WAVES CRASHING ON THE CLIFFS AT ACADIA.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. WNW WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
GUSTY BETWEEN 12-15Z. WIND GUSTS SHOULD ABATE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT-TUESDAY: VFR. LLWS
POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. W WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS/FOG. TS POSSIBLE BGR/BHB WED 6-12Z, AND HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE
WED 18Z-THU 0Z. S/SE WINDS 8-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SW WIND 5-10
KTS.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. W/SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SEE WINDS 25 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES, MAINLY IN THE
WATERS 25-60 NM. SEAS BUILD TO 6-11 FT, HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS,
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CRITERIA ALONG
THE COAST HAS A CHANCE AT REACHING HIGH SURF CRITERIA WEDNESDAY
PM. SEAS AND WINDS EASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME MARINE FOG
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/PM
AVIATION...21/TF/PM
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