072
FXUS61 KCAR 202327
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
727 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:27PM UPDATE...HAZY/MILKY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH SMOKE
ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO/MANITOBA WILDFIRES REMAINS HIGH UP IN
THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE IS ADVECTING IN ALOFT AS WELL WITH
CIRRUS CLOUDS PUSHING INTO MAINE ALONG THE MAINE/QUEBEC
BORDERLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BUT THE TAF UPDATE BELOW
IN THE AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LEADING TO MINOR URBAN FLOODING.
2) ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MAY BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A 40-50KT LOW-
LEVEL JET BRINGING IN A SLUG OF MOISTURE. IN FACT PW VALUES MAY
TOP 2.00 INCHES OVER DOWNEAST WHICH IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL AND
FALLS INTO THE 99TH PERCENTILE. PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXISTS TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDER TO SRN AREAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FIRST SYSTEM OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BRING AROUND 1 INCH
TO DOWNEAST AREAS WITH IN STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT AS THEY WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE FAVORABLE QUAD OF THE UPR JET OVERNIGHT.
RAIN MOVES EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE BREAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SFC-BASED CAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG OVER THE NORTH WOODS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OVER NRN AND WRN
AREAS BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT MAY SEE PEEKS
OF SUNSHINE. RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50 INCHES. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MORE PROMINENT ALONG
THE COAST, IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ROUGH SEAS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SEAS OF 5-8 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORELINE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST PEAK WAVE PERIODS FROM NWPS AT THE SHORE ARE SHOWING
AROUND 8 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON AND 9 FEET DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE RIP RISK ALONG THE COAST IS HIGH FOR
WEDNESDAY AND CRITERIA FOR HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE MET SO
EITHER WAY IT WILL BE ROUGH FOR ANYONE ALONG THE COAST AND
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF RECREATING. SITUATIONS LIKE THIS HAVE
RESULTED IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO THE OCEAN BY LARGER WAVES
CRASHING ON THE CLIFFS AT ACADIA.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY: VFR WITH HIGH CIGS. WINDS WILL RELAX FOR A
LITTLE BIT THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AND BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THEN S WINDS DEVELOP BY MORNING, INCREASING TO
5-15KTS, GUSTING TO 20-25KTS IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG. TS
POSSIBLE BGR/BHB WED 06-12Z, AND HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE WED 18Z-THU 00Z.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. S/SE WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. W/SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY,
THOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD
SEE WINDS 25 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL GALE FORCE FROM 25-60NM TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50%. SEAS BUILD TO 6-11
FT, HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS, FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CRITERIA ALONG THE COAST HAS A CHANCE AT REACHING
HIGH SURF CRITERIA WEDNESDAY PM. SEAS AND WINDS EASE THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SOME MARINE FOG TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/JS
AVIATION...21/JS
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